Karnataka: JD(S) would be a surprise package

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enarada After HD Deve Gowda became the first Prime Minister from Karnataka, both local and national media went gaga over his modest credentials for days together and one word that kept on reverberating all over was “Mannina Maga ( son of the Soil). Everyone sang hosaganas in the choicest of superlatives as this was the best thing to have happened to the State.

However, one politician who did not seem to be very pleased with this ‘yakashagana’ syndrome was former Chief Minister JH Patel whose wit and one-liners were hillarious and pungent as well.  His languid manner was deceptive and he was not given to verbal excess and always steered clear of sycophancy. He was equally disdainful of rhetorical inflation or prolixity.

When I asked him to comment on the “ Mannina Maga katha”,  he said.”  Gowda is always theatrical and hyperbolic. If he is the only son of the soil, then where have all us come from.? Did we all fall from the sky ? what a chutzpah  !!”

GOWDA

Yet the fact remains that Deve Gowda has remained a party to many historic machinations in the political history of Karnataka and surprised both his friends and foes at the same time whenever they tried to write him off. He has been one of the deft practitioners of “politics of power and convenience” and did not mind even riding two horses at one time whenever the occasion suited him.  The History of JD(S) too has been modeled, more or less on the same pattern and what is all the more surprising is that   Deve Gowda still continues to remain a force in the Old Mysore region of Karnataka with his usual wails and woes as the sole Champions of the farmers cause. !

In this round of Assembly polls, his party appears to have already placed itself in the position of a vital cog and he aspires to play the role of a King maker all over again. A closer look at the battle line of Karnataka clearly shows three things:-

a)The spoil of anti-incumbency scenario is not going to be monopolized by the Congress party alone. It would be shared by Congress, KJP and JD(S) in some measure or the other.

b) These three parties would also try to garb the maximum share of floating voters across the state which happens to be a whopping 12 percent plus and makes a big difference in the victory or defeat of many candidates.

c)A big chunk of young voters in Karnataka would not be easy to please by any political party and it would take a lot of realistic and attractive measures to seek their mandate.

The 2004 Assembly polls, gave 58 seats to JD(S) and managed to cobble up government by supporting the Congress party where N Dharam Singh became the Chief Minister and Sidharamaih of JD was made the Chief Minister. However, the coalition fell within 18 months as   Deve Gowda’s diktats were strongly resented by the Congress functionaries.

However,  HD kumarswamy’s hunger for power did not deter him from getting into cahoots with the BJP and bringing in a new twist in 2006 when he garnered the support of 46 other MLAS and withdrew the support from Congress. Then he struck a deal with the BJP to form the alternative government and brought in BS Yeddyurappa as his deputy Chief Minister. This was a brazen violation of moral and ethical norms of coalition.

Kumaraswamy had also  entered into a power sharing  deal to enjoy Chief Ministership period of 20 months each, but when BJP’s turn came, he pulled the rug under Yeddyurappa’s  feet and forced the President’s rule in Karnataka for a short term yet again..

JD(S) got a taste of its own medicine at the hands of Karnataka’s electorate in 2008 assembly polls when it could get only 28 seats. A lot of water had passed down Cauvery River since then. Yet both Deve Gowda and HD Kumarswamy have been practicing the duel- politics wherever it suited them.

Kumarswamy didn’t mind stabbing both the Congress and the BJP when it suited him while Deve Gowda has been practicing his double talk on cauveri issue. No wonder then while on the one hand, he asked Chief Minister Jagdish Shetter government to implement the Supreme Court order regarding the release of Cauvery waters to Tamil Nadu and on the other, he himself launched a padayatra against the release of water.

In this round of Assembly polls, both the Congress and the BJP appear to have botched up distribution of tickets in a bi way and JD(S) is going to make the most of that. In about 90 odd seats in the Old Mysore region, JD(S) has the distinct advantage because the Congress party too appears to have left the whole area for the JD(S) to grab.

The Congress party in particular lost a great chance in the first round of 177 tickets where Vokkaliga candidates were given a short shrift and even senior leader SM Krishna got terribly upset.  Deve Gowda, on the other hand, has always been harping on Vokkaliga pride and the cauveruy issue which are so emotional in nature and good enough to make a major chunk of the Vokkaliga community rally behind him.  With its second and third list, the Congress also lost of considerable amount of advantage both in the coastal Karnataka as well as Bellary.

Even intelligence sources confirm that the JD(S), even by the most conservative estimates, would be in a position to get at least 40 odd seats in the even of a fractured verdict in karnataka this time.  If that happens, then it is bad news for Congress because Deve Gowda has an elephantine memory and even today he keeps harping how the then  Congress President Sitraram Kesri called him a  “ Nikamma’ and brought down his government at the Centre.

JD(S) would not like to go in for any post-poll coalition after the 2004 experience and that is why BJP is still hopeful of not facing a complete route in Karnataka even this time around. There have been some informal understandings between the two even after ULB polls at 23 places. The same equation is likely to continue even after the Assembly polls where a coalation government of BJP and JD(S) could be a distinct possibility in Karnataka yet again.

In addition, JD(S) has been quick in grabbing Congress rebels and even poached leaders like A Krishnappa and Vasant Salian, the moment they were denied ticket by the Congress party. The Congress party tally appears to be lesser by at least seats with these rebels and independents in the fary and would like to bring them into its own fold to swell its number.

Another reason for the JD(S) not touching the Congress aparty with a barged pole is  that Deve Gowda is eying at the next Parliamentary elections where all the cards at the moment seem to be in the favour of  BJP led NDA government.

Even a few senior Congress leaders now admit in private that the Congress party appears to have  lot the initial advantage because of bungling in ticket distribution, alienation of both Lingayats and Vokkaligas as well as the absence of  a tall leader capable of carrying all section together.

“ Now, reaching 100  mark figure looks a bit tough and  at the end of the day, the Congress party may realize that  it would be forced to sit in the opposition all over again because  it  would not have sufficient numbers “ quipped a senior Congress leader.

So, in all probability, the verdict of this round of Assembly polls would be more or less like the repeat of 2004 where the JD(S) would emerge as the Kingmaker and keep the congress out of power. Deve Gowda may not have been educated in Harvard or Wharton but still seems to be  the most  ardent follower of  Otto Von Bismarck who said that” politics is the art  of the possible” and even hypothesis and prognosis combined together, sometimes becomes’ synthesis.”. It remains to be seen on 8th may if his wish comes true yet again or not..

(posted on April 27, 2013 @ 1.40pm)

(Ajay Jha is a Commentator and Independent Writer and Analyst on Politics, security and Economy of South And West Asia. His email id is: Ajay N Jha <ajayjha30@gmail.com>)

2 COMMENTS

  1. mr.ajay, im very much convinced on ur finding about politics of JDS ,particularly of Deve Gowda and his son HD kumaraswamy.
    in karnataka though Jds is struggling for its best outcome. but i blve vakkaliga in total wl not support deve gowda”s policy. whereas congress is gaining its base in old mysore area also.
    apart from that as u said for betraying,at the time of power shifting with mr yeddiyurappa ,Lingayath of the state wil take befitting revenge through EVM.

  2. hi jha., almost on track about jds. but,swiftly things are changing with Modi’s bangalore and other north karnataka pub.meetings and useless blabbering and blunders by Rahul and Sonia with out gauging the mood of the people.
    the move by congress especially the high command not to touch Gowda by a barged pole, the possible tie up are between kjp and congress or bjp-jds coming together again after a “natak” .The kar nataka -old man playing king maker again disowning the sons of the soil..
    Congress losses this time would be split between kjp and jds. but the new, young voters are definitely going to turn the table this time and the results are going to be a shocking surprise for the media and as well as for the nation itself. wait to watch, the state is in all likely hood is heading for a President rule immdly after the elections. Gowda will be there to play his dramas. Karnataka’s curse -instability and isolation are likely to continue .

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