ENARADA, Hubli
By Mathihalli Madan Mohan
The announcement that the BSR Congress, a splinter party of the BJP would go alone in the forthcoming loksabha elections, has come as a bombshell to the BJP and manna from heaven for the Congress in Karnataka.
This would no way benefit the party, but would help Congress gain more seats at the expense of the BJP. For in the changed political circumstances after the 2013 elections, the BJP, Yeddyurapa’s KJP and the BSR Congress are too weak to take on the Congress individually. They can be a political force to be reckoned with if they come together and not otherwise. While Yeddyurappa has come back to the parent party, the newly introduced element of uncertainty over the BSR Congress following suit, is likely to upset the calculation of the BJP, in winning the respectable number of loksabha seats in politically adverse circumstances. The BJP has also reasons to worry about the debut of the AAP, with some survey reports suggesting that the AAP might be able to win one seat in Karnataka and this definitely would be from the quota of the BJP. .
The BSR Congress, was floated by the jilted Janardan Reddy, the former Minister of the BJP government, described as king pin of the illegal mining scam, and was floated at his instance by his lieutenant Sri Ramulu, when BJP distanced itself from him, only to create some political space for him. Guided by Reddy, who continued to pull strings, while in jail, the BSR Congress made its mark, when Sri Ramulu retained his assembly seat from Bellary rural, which he had vacated earlier. Unable to find any party joining hands with him, the BSR Congress contested 2013 assembly elections on its own and surprisingly put up a reasonably good show for a starter.
Mr. Sriramulu is a maverick politician. When the Reddy group, with three brothers – Janardhan, Karunakar and Somashekar – along with Sriramulu was in office during the BJP regime in Karnataka, they virtually ruled the government and dictated too. They could get anything done and any rule circumvented to suit their needs. Their word was the law in the home turf Bellary district, which the then Lokayukta Mr. Santosh Hegde had termed it as “Bellary Republic”.
But after the nemesis caught with them their political fortunes hit a nadir. The brothers are no longer united. Janardhan is still in jail, Somashekar is out of politics and Karunakar has stayed away. However, Sriramulu is going steady with Janardhan. Today they have hardly any political clout in the district and outside. The voice of dissent in the district, which had been suppressed during their days, has returned.
For a starter, the nearly one year old party did well. It won four assembly seats and polled more than 8 lakh votes. More than winning the seats and polling votes, BSR Congress and the KJP combined to spoil the party for the parent unit, in couple of constituencies. From the voting trend, it was evident that its base lay more in Northern Karnataka districts of Bellary, Raichur, Koppal, Bidar, Gulbarga and the only district from the southern region is Chitradurga. Beyond it hardly exists. It put in good performance in the areas dominated by the backward classes and Valmiki community.
The details of the poll figures (www.enarada.com United You Stand… 31st May 2013) made it imperative for the parent BJP and the two splinter groups to close their ranks and put up an united face against the Congress for sheer survival. Between them, they had a combined vote strength of 101 lakhs brings them within the striking distance of Congress (114 lakhs).
Based on the voting pattern in the assembly elections, the Congress would walk away with 22 out of the 28 loksabha seats, if the parent BJP and the two splinter groups go to poll separately, with the BJP being able to win 2 seats while four would go the lot of the JDS. If the three parties come together, the BJP can win nine additional seats, while the Congress tally would come down to 14 and that of JDS to 3. If the BSR Congress declines to return to BJP, the latters’ prospects will definitely affect, with five constituencies including Bellary, Raichur and Koppal going the Congress way. But this would hardly help it to refurbish the badly bruised image of the BSR Congress, which has become a political pariah in Karnataka.
Ever since it started its separate outfit, the BSR Congress has been a loner in Karnataka political scene, a sort of political pariah, which none wants to touch, even with a barge pole. Before the assembly JDS, the only party with which it could ally spurned its overtures. After the election, the BSR tried its hand initially to mend the matters with BJP and after getting no response from the latter turned to JDS, which was not enthusiastic either.
The crucial point has been that how is that the BJP, whose interest lies in the BSR coming under its fold politically has been not that enthusiastic. The interest it displayed in getting back Yeddyurappa to the party, and the lobbying that the state party did for the purpose, is conspicuous by its absence in case of BSR Congress. The BSR may be a small party, but it can certainly damage the prospects of the BJP in the loksabha elections.
Perhaps one reason for the reluctance has been the tainted image of the BSR Congress leaders, especially its mentor Janaradan Reddy and all the dust that was raised over the illegal mining scam. Secondly some of the national leaders of the party who once hobnobbed with the Reddy group, like Mrs. Sushma Swaraj, the Leader of the Opposition, may not like to see the party taking back the BSR which has a corrupt image, at a time when BJP has made corruption as an election campaign to take on BJP. The expectation is that the Narendra Modi factor, of not losing any chances of mopping up support from all quarters and the imperative to ensure that no loksabha seats are handed over to Congress on a platter might bring about the last minute rapprochement.
And the BSR Congress has no alternative either than going with the BJP, whatever may be the previous experience, since the other two political parties, would not like to have anything to do with it. Under the circumstances, the talk of the BSR Congress going alone is interpreted more as an act of undue bravado, or a pressure tactics being mounted on the BJP. It is the BJP, which needs the BSR Congress more than the latter needing the support of the former. A tie-up with the BSR is crucial for BJP than vice versa.
(Posted on February 21 , 2014 @ 1pm)
(Author is a Senior Journalist and Columnist. He can be contacted on Mobile: +91 94480 74872 . His email id is madan.mm@gmail.com)
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