Besides returning to power on its own after a nearly a decades gap, the Congress has crossed one more milestone, which has gone practically unnoticed.
Thanks to the Tsunami of peoples power unleashed quietly during the just concluded elections to Karnataka Legislative Assembly, the vote base of the party has crossed the magic mark of one crore and now stands at 114.10 lakhs. The munificence of the voters brought a jack pot 25.91 lakhs in a single election.
This in effect means that one out of every four voters in the 436 lakh electorate has become a Congress voters, regardless of the poll turn out. And if this is computed against the total votes polled in the election, the picture is still brighter. The picture could be that one out of every three of the 321 lakh voters who voted, has favored Congress.
The significance of the achievement can be understood against the background that the party has not been able to achieve this feat at the national level. In 2009 loksabha election, the party’s share in the electorate of 7100 lakhs was a mere 16.77 and 28% of the polled votes.
Since the beginning, the Congress in Karnataka has enjoyed the primacy as a party with largest vote base. None of the later day non Congress parties which managed to wrest power couple of times from 1983, could come anywhere near the Congress. Whether the party was in power or not, the Congress continued to enjoy the primacy.
But the interesting point has been that its vote base had been stagnating around 90 lakhs for the past three elections in a year. Despite the increase in the electorate and poll turn out, the Congress was not able to get a single vote extra in 2004 and 2008 elections. As a matter of fact there had been a marginal decrease and that in 2008 elections; it could not reach the 1999 figure.
But the unprecedented groundswell of support that the Congress got in the 2013 elections has come as both surprise and a puzzle. It was totally unexpected and nobody saw it coming. Apart from the fact that a lot of negative impression had been generally building around the BJP there were no positive notes on which the Congress should have received this kind of bonanza. By its marked dismal performance both in the assembly and in the functioning of the organization, the Congress by no means had endeared itself to the people. Neither at the organisational level nor the assembly, the party had been able discharge its responsibility in articulating on the problems of the people and get relief for them. In the case of the most of the party leaders, the issuing of press statements had passed off as agitations. Besides, being too preoccupied as they were in pursuing their personal agenda, the Congress leaders had had hardly any time to spare for the party and the people.
Incidentally, the munificence of the voters was not reserved for Congress alone. Every other major political outfits were also benefited. Yeddyurappa’s KJP was perhaps the biggest beneficiary, followed by Janata Dal (S) and BSR Congress of Sriramulu of the Reddy group. The BJP was the only party, which not only did not get any extra vote but had the mortification of suffering erosion to the tune of 25 lakhs.
Between 2008and 2013 election, there has been an increase of electorate by 31.27 lakhs and poll turn out was up by over 50 lakhs, the inference being that apart from freshly enrolled voters, who would not miss the maiden opportunity to exercise their democratic right, another 19 lakh voters, who had hither to not exercised franchise also turned up to cast their votes. Taking into consideration that the ruling BJP suffered erosion to the tune of 25 lakhs, the total votes available for distribution among the non BJP parties was around 75 lakhs. Of this it is now clear from the official figures available, the highest share of 30 lakhs went to KJP of Yeddyurappa, the Congress got 25 lakhs, the Janata Dal (S) 13.26 lakhs and the BSR Congress 8.38 lakhs.
The effect of is there for all to see. The Congress vote base went to up 114.10 lakhs and that of JDS from 49.46 lakhs to 62.69 lakhs, making the two as the NO. 1 and 2 parties in the state as for the vote strength is concerned. What however was remarkable was the manner in which the less than six month old new political outfit of Mr. Yeddyurappa chipped in to rake a highest share of 30 lakhs in its maiden attempt and BSR Congress getting 8 lakhs again in a similar attempt; What was noteworthy in the efforts of Sriramulu that it was all his solo effort, since he could not get the services of the three Reddy brothers, one of whom is in Jail in Hyderabad, another had chosen to remain with the BJP (and failed to retain the Harapahanalli seat) and the third for reasons known to himself, had withdrawn and opted out of contest, after initially backing Sriramulu.
And the BJP vote stock plummeted from 88.23 lakhs of 2008 to 62.32 lakhs. This obviously has been the heavy price that the party has paid for sins of omission and commission committed by it during its regime, while the man responsible for it has severed its link with it Mr Yeddyurappa has gone scot free, and got a substantial piece of the support. Not only the BJP has lost the position as the ruling party, but it is also not in a position to step into the shoes as the principal opposition party. The party finds himself tied up with JDS, in terms of the seats won, with each bagging 40 seats each. But in terms of the total votes secured, the BJP finds itself a notch below the JDS, and may have to concede the status to the latter.
Interestingly the combined votes polled by the BJP and its two breakaway groups, namely KJP and BSR Congress headed by Yeddyurappa and Sriramulu, stand at 101.38 lakhs, showing an increase of 12.71 lakh votes over its performance in 2008. In this context, it is difficult to say that the voters have punished BJP.
What has happened to BJP for messing up with the mandate is nothing new in Karnataka politics. It had happened to Janata Dal, in 1989 and 1999 elections and to Congress in 1994 elections. The electorate had clearly frowned upon the schism resulting in the split in the parent party on these occasions. The Congress lost power in 2004 for the policy of appeasing the elite pursued by the government to neglect of others. And the 2008 vote was clearly against the coalition politics and for the first time, the electorate had looked beyond the traditional Congress and the Janata Dal parties to choose the BJP for the first time. Incidentally, the erosion of base for Congress when it lost power in 1994 election was 24 lakhs, which is something akin to loss suffered by the BJP now.
And the pattern of the newly enrolled voters, who are the game changers in any election, plumping for the BJP enmasse as it were in the past three elections, is also missing. For it is clear that they dumped the BJP for a change.
It is clear that the voters’ perception has undergone a subtle change. It appears to be diffused indicating a sort of confusion in their minds over the choice to be made. Every other political outfits in the frey, being preferred to the exclusion of the BJP, have received the cake.
What then is the message that the voters have sent out to through the election. This question is being debated all over, with no convincing explanations being advanced though several theories are being advanced.
If it is a vote against BJP, it does not stand to reason, why voters should have bestowed attention on the two breakaway groups of the BJP, led by Yeddyurappa and Sriramulu of the infamous Reddy group, who have been the primary causes for all the ills that afflicted by the BJP’s reign in Karnataka.
Were the voters looking forward to an alternative to BJP? If so, the Congress should have got all the attention because of the T I N A (There Is No Alternative) factor. Neither the JDS nor the Yeddyurappa group have the capacity to don the role as a full-fledged ruling party and are cut out to play a coalition politics rather than giving a single party government. But Congress should have got overwhelming support as it had happened in 1989, when it could win three fourths of seats in the 224 member Assembly. But Congress tally remains pegged at 121, with majority of only nine. The only inference that could be drawn is that the voters trusted Congress but not fully. It looks as though the voters have put the party on probation, in the context of its track record of missing up mandate when it got overwhelming majority.
There is a view that the voting pattern in general and the performance of the Congress denotes a shift of the loyalty of the Lingayats towards the Congress, which had been shunned all along. This does not exactly jell, because the combined votes secured by the BJP and the Yeddyurappa are more than the total votes that the party had secured during its presplit days in 2008 elections. Besides Yeddyurappa himself has got more than 30 lakh votes.
Corruption and illegal mining activities hardly influenced as is evident from the fact Yeddyurappa and others tainted with corruption charges succeeded in the election while the BJP after it was cleansed by the exit of the tainted persons did not get any support . Persons associated with mining activities, had been able were fielded by Congress too who were able to win.
The governance could be an issue but the track record of Congress was nothing exemplary. The only plausible explanation that can be offered is that pent up frustration level that had been developed over the BP’s rule, was so strong that the voters dumped BJP to choose any body that comes in view regardless their antecedents.
(Posted on May 11, 2013 @ 3.30pm)
(Author is a Senior Journalist and Columnist. Mobile: +91 94480 74872 Email : madan.mm@gmail.com)
