Digging holes in Modi boat??

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Ajay N JhaENARADA, New Delhi

 By AJAY N JHA

In war, even a small chink in the armour can create enormous problem for the commander and make victory increasingly difficult. The all-out assault by BJP on making ‘Congress Mukt Bharat’ under the leadership of Narendra Modi as anointed by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh(RSS), already seems to have hit some rough patch. As things stand today, it would create more fissures from within.

The RSS has put its bet on Modi and it does not want to lose LS polls. It has already started sensing the scent of a spectacular victory in 2014 and that is how it has brought the younger generation forward. The Sangh also feels that under Modi’s leadership the BJP would be able to cross 200 mark. Bharatiya Jan Sangh started from 2 seats in 1952 polls. The BJP could not dream of crossing the 200 plus Rubicon even at the peak of its popularity when there were stalwarts like Vajpayee, MM Joshi and LK Advani at the helm.

Mohan Rao Bhagwat, Sarsanghchalak of RSS
Mohan Rao Bhagwat, Sarsanghchalak of RSS

It is for the first time the both BJP and RSS feel that Modi would achieve that target and seeing the hype and hoopla around Modi, it would not be surprising if BJP gets good number of seats to form the government at the centre after a decade.

Even for a neutral observer, the Modi mania gripping the people in most parts of the country is a spectacular phenomenon. Right from Vadodara to Varanasi, from Godhara to Guwahati and from Ahmedabad to Arunachal Pradesh, there is a palpable amount of curiosity and awareness about this “Chai Wala”.

Even the worst critics of BJP admit in private that the Modi factor would be in a position to swing 6 to 8 percent of popular and floating votes for BJP across the country because “Modi has caught their imagination and his repeated barbs at the UPA government with regard to corruption and price rise , has already started sinking into their hearts”.

The fact also remains that RSS is as much invested in his campaign as Modi’s own team in Gandhinagar and the BJP’s headquarters in Delhi. According to a report published in Business Standard, the RSS has got hold of a huge database of 11.5 million Delhi voters, and has started accumulating volunteers to take on the NaMo campaign online and offline. Not only Delhi, but the Sangh plans to cascade its efforts to other states.

Facebook and Twitter campaigns have been started for the BJP’s 272-plus seat target, and the newspaper says the “entire campaign is being run with qualified professionals” who hope to flood “cyberspace with Modi messages”. A 30-man call centre is also apparently ready to roll. Not since the Mandir movement has the Sangh campaigned as extensively for the BJP as now. While the Sangh is still coy about admitting why it is so heavily invested in Modi, it prefers to be in the background for fear of scaring away the new voters who are attracted to Modi. “The problem for the Sangh, though, seems to be that its foot-soldiers also appear to have been blown off their feet by NaMo, leading RSS boss Mohan Bhagwat to remind them with some degree of irritation that singing NaMo’s praises was not their job”,Wrote a veteran commentator.

However, there is little doubt that getting NaMo to 7, Race Course Road is part of the Sangh’s immediate goal. The Sangh’s long-term backing for Modi began sometime in mid-May 2012, when it sacrificed its own Gujarat strongman, Sanjay Joshi, after Modi made this an issue. After that, the Sangh has steadily expanded its support first by elevating Modi to campaign committee chief last June, and then as PM nominee in September despite the sulks and objections of BJP’s old-timers led by LK Advani.

The Sangh’s role was particularly critical last September, when Modi’s detractors inside the party were pushing hard for postponing his anointment as PM candidate till after the Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan elections results were announced. The RSS decision to back the Modi announcement even before the assembly elections was thus very prescient. The last thing the BJP needed was a lot of infighting after the assembly elections were won.

Moreover, by making the announcement before the elections, the RSS ensured that the BJP’s state and national leaders were pulling in the same direction. Modi batted for all his chief ministers and chief ministerial candidates, and this may have made all the difference between a sweep and ordinary victory in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, and between victory/near victory and defeat in Delhi and Chhattisgarh.

“The RSS-backed decisions involving the BJP are indicative of great political savvy. Where needed, the RSS put its weight behind the right people, and where required, it backed away even from its own people.” Said a senior Sangh observer.

While this rhetoric makes sense in the context of the Congress’s efforts to drum up the Muslim vote, there is little doubt that the RSS has been playing a critical role in BJP politics – and a smart one this time. The most obvious exhibit was its role in hoisting Narendra Modi as the BJP’s mascot for 2014 – first as campaign committee chairman in June and later as prime ministerial candidate in the teeth of opposition from LK Advani and some others.

EN Graphics 25-3-14

In doing so, the RSS abandoned its own time-honoured principle of collective leadership – bowing to the demands of the BJP’s rank-and-file. The Sangh saw that Modi’s presidential style may be important to victory next year.

The RSS backing to Modi could also be traced to the moment when Modi’s detractors in the Gujarat BJP split from the party and formed the Gujarat Parivartan Party (GPP) under another RSS man and former Chief Minister Keshubhai Patel. Even while sections of the VHP tried to do mischief by backing the GPP, the RSS controlled the damage and stood by Modi.

In Madhya Pradesh, when Shivraj Singh Chouhan wanted to put his own man as president of the state BJP, replacing Prabhat Jha with Narendra Singh Tomar, the RSS obliged Chouhan and advised Jha to continue working for a BJP victory in MP.

Towards the end of last year, when party president Nitin Gadkari was under political pressure to quit following disclosures about his Purti group, the RSS was half-inclined to brazen it out, especially since Gadkari was hand-picked by it to head the party. But it clearly saw that fighting an election with a handicapped and uncharismatic leader was not viable.

The Sangh swallowed its own pride to bring in Rajnath Singh. Singh, the RSS’s compromise choice as replacement for Gadkari, was acceptable to Advani, and he turned out to be another great choice for the simple reason that he comes from UP, and appears to have struck up a good equation with Modi as the  road to Delhi for the BJP runs through UP in 2014.

Clearly, the RSS has invested more in a BJP win in 2014 than ever. It also appears to have developed sharper political instincts that go beyond raw Hindutva. It is showing that it can step in when required, and step back when it feels the BJP is better equipped to handle an issue on its own.

In the process however, it has not allowed BJP seniors like Advani, Jaswant Singh, Sushma Swaraj and Harin Pathak to come in the way. The mess created by both Advani over Gandhinagar seat and the  audacity of Jaswant Singh to file nomination from Barmer as an independent candidate for “contesting on principle, and honour – not just my honour, but the honour of all the people of Barmer” does not seem to have perturned the RSS bosses much.

The sulking seniors should have understood the game of RSS earlier that Restraint and silence are always a preferred option. Overreaction may prove to be a storm in a teacup. Silence is always dignified and gracious. The question that has been debated within various quarters is what the Incredible Sulk thinks it can achieve at this stage of the game. The BJP has for better or for worse put all its eggs in the Modi basket. That Team Modi is moving the old guard out of the way is not surprising or unprecedented. Indira Gandhi did the same with great ruthlessness when she was selected to be the Prime Minister after the sudden death of Lal Bahadur Shastri. But the difference is Mrs Gandhi waited to move into the house before starting her house-cleaning. Team Rajnath/Modi has commenced with “adjusting” the old furniture out of the way even before the first vote has been cast.

That unseemly haste seems to have caught the old guard off-guard and sent them into a giant sulk. Where the current leadership failed was to orchestrate a smoother transition. But the plan came to naught because Advani was not ready to be shunted or had not been assuaged/coaxed/sweet-talked enough into doing that. Had Advani been persuaded to go quietly, the rest of the senior citizens would have likely followed suit. Except that would still leave the Sushma Swaraj problem. One cannot really begrudge her sulk. Sushma Swaraj as leader of opposition not unnaturally viewed herself as a sort of shadow Prime Minister. But Modi has overshadowed her claim.

The problem with Sushma Swaraj is that perhaps She expected gratitude for giving in to the Modi coronation within the party. Instead she finds herself being repeatedly sidelined. So now she is left with striking a sort of conscience-of-the-party pose whether it’s about feeling the pain of Jaswant Singh or her famous tweet about tainted Karnataka leader B. Sriramulu.

Right now it just makes her seem more alienated, the miffed minority, rather than powerful. According to a senior BJP functionary “She is acting independently, taking a high moral ground and creating a public image that is more inclusive and acceptable. She is creating a spot on the bench for herself as the Not-Modi ready to spring to service if the need arises. “That’s where Modi supporters like Madhu Kishwar smell sabotage. Kiswar has been Sushma’s Twitter baiter-in-chief. She has been going after Swaraj hammer and tongs for weeks.

What probably is rattling Modi’s in-house opposition right now is that some external players like Ram Vilas Paswan and the Telugu Desam Party are cozying up to the Modi-led BJP. The Pramod Muthalik fiasco has given the likes of Kishwar even more fuel for her conspiracy fire. The BJP  sources are claiming Operation Muthalik was planned by general secretary Ananth Kumar and state unit chief Prahlad Joshi to “discredit” Modi as a Hindutva hardliner. He is supposed to have done this “in tandem” with Advani and Sushma Swaraj.  It was Goa Chief Minister Manohar parrikar who prevailed upon the BJP leadership to throw Muthalik out. But then, the damage had already been done.

It is time for RSS to take stock of those sulkers and spoilers who are still trying to muddle the   water around Modi in one way or the other because any more Muthalik kind of misadventure would  make the march to the  Delhi throne more messy in the coming days.  How the Sangh tackles such nuisance remains to be seen.

(Posted on March 25, 2014 @ 3:30pm)

(Ajay N Jha is a veteran journalist from both Print and Electronic media.  He is Advisor to Prasar Bharti. The views expressed are his personal. His email id is Ajay N Jha <ajayjha30@gmail.com> )

The views expressed on the website are those of the Columnists/ Authors/Journalists / Correspondents and do not necessarily reflect the views of ENARADA.

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