ENARADA, New Delhi
By AJAY N JHA
It is this scenario that has galvanized both Sangh and the BJP leadership to focus on Andhra Pradesh in more aggressive manner. There are at least 10 Parliamentary seats in Andhra Pradesh (Zahirabad, Medak, Chelvella, Rajamundry, Machilipatnam, Vijayawada, Narasaraopet, Hindupur. Tirupati and Chittoor) where the BJP-TDP combines hopes to gain and decimate the Congress party which is already in shambles.
Local observers still maintain that while the Congress could retain some seats in Telangala along with TRS. But then, TRS has been behaving like a cat on the wall and it refused to have a formal poll-tie up with Congress and thereby keeping the options open for any post poll alliance with NDA. The congress party would find it extremely difficult to retain 4 to 5 seats out of the total of 25 seats in Seemandhra region and it is here that the BJP-TDP combine is expecting a major gain.
Karnataka, on the other hand should have been a major thrust area for the BJP. This was the state where the BJP had formed its government in 2006 and ruled for the last 7 years. The coastal region of Karnataka has been the bastion of Sangh since 1960s itself but it took more than 40 years for the RSS to have its firm foothold in the State.
The BJP lost miserably in 2013 state assembly elections even as it had won 19 out of the total of 28 parliamentary seats in the State. It has indentified 10 swing segments where the outcome could be surprising and mostly in favour of the saffron brigade (Gulbarga, Bellary, Uttaraka kannada, Davangere, Udipi -Chikamagalur, Tumkur, Mandya, Mysore, Chamrajanagar and Kolar).
Karnataka has been a trend setter in the southern part of India in many ways. One of the traits of Karnataka voters has been to separate the State elections with that of Lok Sabha. For example, the people of Karnataka voted for Congress in 1984 but brought Janata Dal government led by Ram Krishna Hedge to power. In the same way, they brought SM Krishna government to power in 1999 even as they showed their preference for Atal Behari Vajpayee at the centre.
The major difference this time around has been that the Congress party government led by Sidharamaih has, by and large, been free of any major scandal or controversies and he has himself gone on record saying that there is no Modi wave in Karnataka whatsoever even as a few poll surveys have already given 20 out of 28 seats for BJP.
However, given how the party has floundered in selecting its candidates in traditional strongholds, that tally appears highly optimistic. Not only Congress is the ruling party in the State, the Janata Dal (Secular) also has its sphere of influence in most parts of Old Mysore region.
The ‘Modi wave’, which the BJP claims is omnipresent in Karnataka, seems to be restricted to the BJP-dominated constituencies. During the last year’s assembly elections, Modi addressed political rallies in three key constituencies of the BJP. Yet, the party lost heavily in all three segments. If there is a wave at all, it is visible only in the urban centres. “Voting in the hinterland will be dominated by local issues such as farmers’ problems, a crash in prices of areca-nut, and encroachment of forests and not by Modi wave,” says a veteran commentator from Bangalore.
The BJP has been portraying the return of BS Yeddiurappa as its “trump card” which could turn the tide in favour of Modi. That does not seem to be happening. Moreover, the BJP also seems to have committed some blunders in allotting tickets to its candidates at least at 6 places.
For example, Anant kumar who is known as BJP’s poster boy in Karnataka is pitted against Nandan Nilekini of Congress party and that is going to be a tough fight indeed.
In Bangalore North, the party has fielded former CM DV Sadananda Gowda, whose candidature was openly opposed by local strongman and former deputy CM R Ashoka. Both are Vokkaligas and a victory for Gowda could undermine the stature of Ashoka in the constituency.
In Mysore, where the BJP has an upper-hand, the party has fielded journalist Prathap Simha, whose candidature has come as a surprise for everyone, including the local cadre. The aspirant for the party ticket, CH Vijayashankara, who lost to the Congress’ H Vishwanath from Mysore in the previous parliamentary polls, had been asked to contest from Hassan against the powerful former PM HD Deve Gowda.
The return of former chief minister BS Yeddyurappa to the BJP may have bolstered the party’s prospects in the Lingayat-dominant North Karnataka. However, yeddi may fight the battle tougher than expected because he is pitted against the JD(S) candidate Geetha Shivarajkumar in the Shimoga Parliamentary seat. Geetha is the daughter of former CM S Bangarappa and the daughter-in-law of Karnataka’s greatest cine star Dr Rajkumar. Her husband (Shivarajkumar) and brother-in-law (Puneeth Rajkumar) are the reigning superstars of Kannada cinema. If the two brothers campaign for Geetha in Shimoga, it could be disastrous for Yeddyurappa, as they could polarize the community votes in favour of the JD(S).
In the Udupi-Chikmagalur constituency which shot to national prominence because of the Datta Peetha row spearheaded by local leader and former minister CT Ravi, the party has given ticket to Yeddyurappa’s confidante Shobha Karandlaje. The entire local BJP cadre has rebelled against her, as they wanted Ravi to contest the polls.
Bellary is yet another example of BJP’s miscalculation where B Sriramulu, who hardly enjoys support of the local leaders, has been fielded as the party candidate.
The fact of the matter is that internal confusion and misgivings among the party workers of the BJP at the grassroots level has already started taking its toll. The local aspirants are angry and the BJP could think of retaining at least 14 to 15 seats only when local leaders forget their differences and work in favour of the BJP, the party may win in 15-16 segments. But if the BJP does not get its act together, it will be an average performance by the BJP in Karnataka and its tally could even come down below 10 seats. As of today, repeating the feat of 2009 is a gargantuan task for BJP while the Congress party could take its tally of seats from 6 seats in 2009 to at least 16 seats this time around.
Tamil Nadu may be a surprise package in this round of Lok Sabha polls for many reasons. DMK and AIADMK have been the two Dravidian parties capturing the seat of power in Tamil Nadu in last 30 odd years and they have also switched sides as per their convenience and political expediency for both UPA and NDA led coalition.
But BJP has walked an extra mile by stitching up a formidable alliance of seven parties for the April 24 Lok Sabha polls, throwing up a stiff challenge to traditional turf leaders DMK and AIADMK besides the Congress. This move would prove to be a bulwark in ensuring that votes did not split in a contest that it hopes would give it a significant number of members as it rides on the Narendra Modi wave in the wake of the Prime Ministerial nominee’s two well-attended public rallies in the state.
The BJP-led combine comprises of actor-politician Vijayakanth’s DMDK, PMK founded by S. Ramadoss, Vaiko-led MDMK and IJK and KMDK, two local parties. Interestingly, BJP managed to bring DMDK and PMK, parties which are poles apart, under the umbrella of the alliance which also comprises of MDMK, IJK and KMDK.
Under the seat-sharing agreement agreed upon by the allies, DMDK was given the lion’s share of 14 out of 39 seats, followed by BJP and PMK at eight each. MDMK will be fighting from seven seats while IJK and KMDK will field candidates from one constituency each. If this combination clicks, then it would give a significant toe hold to the saffron brigade to spread its tentacles in the State in the coming days.
On the other hand, the DMK had bagged 18 seats in coalition with the Congress, which had bagged 8 seats in 2009. However, a lot has changed during last five years in both camps. Karunanidhi’s elder son Azhagiri has been expelled out of the party and the State Congress unit of Tamil Nadu too seems to be in some kind of hallucination over the allotment of seats. Yet, many poll surveys give this combine a tally of 7 to 15 seats.
The BJP’s grand move is going to pose a serious challenge to AIADMK Supremo Jayalalitha jayaram who has been hailed by many political observers as the canniest politician in the country. She has been like an enigma to both her friends and foes. Her campaign slogan of “Peace, Prosperity and Progress” sounds hardly like something to fire up the electorate. But never underestimate the Lady from Poes Garden. It seems like pretty much every post May 16th configuration includes her which is not something one can say about all the other regional players.
Jayalaitha has not made any secret of her excellent personal rapport with Narendra Modi and has described herself as his “well-wisher” and called him her “good friend”. There have been reports that their prime ministerial ambitions have been driving the two apart. She also skipped a meeting with Modi in October at Madras University. But Jaya has always acceded to requests for travel facilities for Modi during his campaign trips.
Unlike Mamata, she does not describe the BJP under Modi as rioters. In Hyderabad, Modi praised “Dr. Jayalalithaa” for her work in skill development that he said her Congress-ruled neighbour Andhra Pradesh lacked.
Jayalalithaa was an early part of the Third Front being put together by the CPM. The idea was that there could be a Third Front involving AIADMK, the Left Front, JD(U), BJD, JD(S) and SP. That got stuck over seat-sharing and AIADMK unilaterally announced its candidates for all the seats. As of now, Jayalalitha has kept all her options open and her next move whether or not to support Modi would know only after post election results.
Kerala is another State where the BJP is desperately trying to get some foothold and many BJ P senior leaders are saying that the BJP would at least open its account in this round of LS polls. The fact remains that the Congress would win some seats- not on the basis of their record at the centre but because of goodwill for its Chief Minister Oommen Chandy. At least four poll surveys have predicted that despite anti-incumbency against the central government, goodwill for the Oommen Chandy state government is expected to ensure that the Congress can still win a majority of the seats in the state.
They point out that the elections approach support for the United Democratic Front (UDF) may have fallen but it still enjoys a wide lead over the Left Democratic Front (LDF). However, the UDF still has reasons for worry, for its core voters seem willing to switch at the last minute. Kerala has been a peculiar case where even a 2 percent vote swing has turned the election results upside down.
Some of these surveys have also shown that despite frenetic campaigning by the Aam Aadmi Party and the BJP, with Narendra Modi even meeting church leaders in the state, it is expected to only yield marginal gains for both the parties. The UDF enjoys strong popularity only in the Kochi region, and could face some competition in the Malabar and Tranvancore regions from the LDF. While Chandy may have goofed up on the issue of support from the Namboodiri and Nair community, he has been liked better as compared to his LDF counterpart with regard to development issues. UDF enjoys better support across the Muslim and Christian communities in the state as compared to LDF.
These surveys also found that most of the respondents supported the UDF government in the steps it had undertaken against the LDF, including the Lavalin case against the CPM’s Pinaryi Vijayan and TP Chandrasekharan. Even the Kasturirangan report on the Western Ghats has made no major impact on the poll fortunes of the UDF with the state government’s firefighting measures possibly having paid dividends.
A few days ago, another poll by Malayalam channel Asianet News had predicted 11 seats for the UDF with an error margin of one percent. According to the poll, in many constituencies the difference in voteshare was only one percent, indicating that the result could go either way.
On the other hand, the CPM, which incidentally has “outsourced” five of its seats to outsiders – two Congressmen and three independents including a film actor – were cocksure that it would win all the 20 seats because people were seemingly fed up of the UDF government. The CPM is also confident because of the return of the prodigal son – VS Achtuhanandan. The veteran leader, who had been at loggerheads with party secretary Pinarayi Vijayan as well as with most of the party apparatus, suddenly changed tracks and started siding with them.
Yet a landslide win for the LDF seems far-fetched and in all probability, the Congress led UDF would fair better.
Under these circumstances, an expectation of a bumper share in the total number of 130 seats from the southern States may come as cropper to the BJP because it would hardly be in a position to reach even 30 seats on its own steam. Secondly, its alliance partners could also get bogged down in the multi-cornered fight at a few places and that would help Congress more than the BJP, particularly in Karnataka and kerala.
But then, the voters have always given a clear and decisive mandate to political parties in all Assembly elections since 2010 barring Delhi. If they decide that way, then Modi would certainly be far ahead of his political rivals. However, even a last minutes slip could spoil the saffron applecart. It remains to be seen how the Sangh is going to hold on to its strings till the last. !! (CONCLUDED)
(Posted on April 5, 2014 @ 1pm)
(Ajay N Jha is a veteran journalist from both Print and Electronic media. He is Advisor to Prasar Bharti. The views expressed are his personal. His email id is Ajay N Jha <ajayjha30@gmail.com> )
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