Author: Flavia D Souza
The BJP in Karnataka in total disarray and the rise of Yeddyurappa’s Karnataka Janatha Party (KJP) has to a great extent skewed the political equations in the state. The coastal belt of Karnataka comprising the three districts of Dakshina Kannada, Udupi and Uttara Kannada has been considered to be the stronghold of BJP for long. In fact BJP’s rise in Karnataka had begun in the coastal region decades ago when BJP was not such a force to reckon with in the country or the state. This was proved beyond doubt when the BJP won 7 out of the 8 assembly seats in Udupi and 4 of the 8 assembly seats in Dakshina Kannada district in the 2008 elections. With elections to the state assembly round the corner this year, it remains to be seen whether the BJP is able to retain its stranglehold in the coastal belt in the changed political scenario in the state.
BJP in the state is in a mess following Yeddyurappa’s rebellion and the internal strife within the party leaders coming out in the open. While this is the general scenario the the situation is totally different in this coastal belt due to post-2008 political developments involving some of the political bigwigs of this region. In 2008 the BJP was a strong and cohesive political force as compared to its major rivals. But now it is a house divided as the internal wrangle cum personal animosity among its overambitious leaders has given enough fodder for public spectacle, considerably eroding its credibility. There were other developments in the party fold in the last 5 years, which is sure to alter the course of the political situation in this region.
BJP – A House Divided
D V Sadananda Gowda, who belongs to this area, became Chief Minister of the state for a brief period and was forced to exit ungraciously. Mangalore North MLA Krishna Palemar also had an unceremonious exit as he was forced to resign as minister following the porn gate scandal. The BJP stronghold Udupi is witnessing high drama as the battle between two stalwarts of the party Haladi Srinivas Shetty and district-in-charge Minister Kotal Srinivas Poojary has come out in the open resulting in Shetty resigning from the party membership in January this year. Halady is believed to be miffed after he was denied minister ship. To add insult to the injury Halady is said to have rubbed Kalladka Prabhakar Bhat in the wrong way asserting himself, and thus paid a heavy price when his bitter foe MLC Kota Srinivas Poojary got the post of District-in-charge minister of Udupi. Since then the supporters of Poojary and Halady have taken the battle to the streets much to the chagrin of the party.
This is a new development for the party because BJP MLA’s of coastal districts always stood by the diktats of the party, come what may.
On the contrary, the Congress despite its internal bickering is emerging as a strong and united political force. There is the clamor for the assembly seats among various aspirants in the Congress, something which the party may not be handle smoothly and a few desertions and crossovers are expected once the names are finalized. For example in Mangalore South constituency, J R Lobo, Rohan Monteiro, Ivan D Souza and Suresh Ballal are contenders for Congress ticket. But Congress is like an ocean and desertions or crossovers may not cause much damage to the party at this juncture. There is déjà vu in Congress circles as it feels that the political situation in the state is rife for it to come back to power, and this very feeling is acting as a binding force for the party, keeping its rank and file together. BJP may again pitch in for Yogish Bhat considering that it has its traditional vote bank in this constituency.
In Mangalore North the BJP will be in dilemma to field or not to field sitting MLA Krishna J Palemar who was involved in the porn gate scandal. Palemar still wields considerable money and muscle power and BJP is yet to project an alternative name for contesting from there.
KJP Factor
The battle in Puttur is going to be the one which will attract maximum attention in the coastal belt in the coming elections for the simple reason that Shobha Karandlaje, Sadananda Gowda, Shakunthala Shetty have some role to play here. The bitter rivalry between Gowda and Shakunthala Shetty and Gowda and Karandlaje is well known. It is quite certain that Energy Minister and Yeddyurappa’s protégé Shobha will join KJP any time and there is also speculation that she might contest from here or from Belthangady. Yeddyurappa’s KJP has been a non-starter in the coastal region and it has not attracted any major political leaders to its fold. Though KJP General Secretary Dhananjay Kumar is from the coastal region he has no personal charisma to make any difference to the political fortunes of KJP.
Furthermore, there is strong speculation that Yeddyurappa’s bête noire Sadananda Gowda is going to contest from Puttur constituency. KJP might field Shobha from Belthangady, which is believed to be much safer for her, which means that JD(S) might try to rope in Shakunthala Shetty to its fold and field her from Puttur. Whoever might be the candidate, Puttur is certainly going to witness a tough battle in the next elections.
In Udupi the fight between Halady and Poojary, which is now fought in the streets openly has certainly dented the party image to a great extent. The dominant Bunt community of the region is quite irked by the shoddy treatment meted out to Halady. Both Nagarja Shetty and Halady have been in the bad books of RSS strongman Kalladka Prabhakar Bhat and they feel they have been denied what it due to them at his insistence. There is also speculation on the political future of Raghupathi Bhat, whose wife Padmapriya had died under mysterious circumstances in 2008. Considering that public memory is too short sitting MLA of Udupi Raghupathi Bhat may be lucky enough to come out unscathed even in his political career and may get BJP ticket to contest from the same constituency.
The BJP in both Dakshina Kannada and Udupi is nothing but a divided house to the extent that for the first time there is some dissenting voice from disgruntled BJP MLA’s against the undue interference of Kalladka Prabhakar Bhat. It can be firmly said that the defeat of BJP in the Udupi-Chickmagalur by-elections to the Lok Sabha elections last year, is the price the party had to pay for deprecating people’s mandate. This loss is just an indication showing that BJP is losing grip in its bastion in this coastal belt.
Now that the Congress has tasted blood here after a long gap it is sure to go all out to give a tough fight to the BJP in its own backyard. KJP, KSR and BSR Congress of Sriramala are nonentities in this region. It is going to be a straight fight between BJP and Congress.
