ENARADA, New Delhi
By Ajay N Jha
The Congress party in Karnataka seems to have already made sure that it would not lose any of the two seats in Bangalore Rural and Mandya where polls are to be held on August 21.
For Bangalore rural seat, the party has fielded DK Suresh, the younger brother of former Minister DK Shivakumar against Janata dal(S) Anitha Kumarsway who is the wife of JD(S) leader HD Kumaraswamy. Anitha had lost last assembly polls from Channapatna. While for Mandya, it has chosen Kannada film actress Ramya against C S Putturaju of JD(S).
However, the most interesting part is that the BJP which ruled the state for the last five years could not find a single suitable candidate for the contest at these two places.
According to a Bangalore based political commentator “KPCC President Dr G Parameshwar has played the master stroke with this. He has not only been successful in placating a belligerent DK Shivkumar to a great extent by putting his younger brother as the party candidate from Bangalore rural segment, he has also pleased both SM Krishna and Ambareesh by putting up Ramya as Mandya candidate. More than that, he has ensured that the party romps home at both places which in turn, would save the Chief Minister from the ire of Vokkaliga community”.
Historically, both these seats have been remained with the Congress except for a few occasions where the Janata Dal won. Bangalore rural segment was known as Kanapapura Lok sabha segment till last elections. MV Chandraskehkhar Murthy won this seat for five times in a row from 1977 to 1991 and for the sixth time in 1999. HD Kumaraswamy has won this seat twice in 1996 and 2009 respectively while the BJP won this seat for the first time in 1998 after fielding M Srinivas as its candidate. Former PM, HD Deve Gowda won the 2002 bye elections from here but he lost at the hands of Congress party’s Tejaswini Ramesh Gowda in 2004. In 2009 kanakapura became Bangalore rural Lok Sabha segment because of delimitation.
In the same way, Mandya has been a congress bastion despite the fact that the area is dominated by Vokkaliga community. This seat remained with the Congress party in 1977 which fielded k Chiklingaiah as its candidate. Former Union Minister SK Krishna had won this seat twice in 1980 and 1996 respectively while G Made Gowda got elected in 1989 and 1991. Kannada Film Star Ambareesh alias M H Amaranath won from here in 1998 on Janata Dal ticket and twice in 1999 and 2004 on Congress party ticket. The Congress party lost Mandya seat in 2009 polls at the hands of JD(S) candidate N Chaluvaraya Swamy. The BJP has never won here.
Thus, it’s a straight fight among the vokkaligas where the Congress appears to have distinct advantage. Former Minister DK Shivakumar is himself fighting Banagalore seat by proxy in the name of his brother DK Suresh because he enjoys tremendous amount of clout in this area and he had managed to defeat former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda from Kanakapura seat by putting up a rookie Udaya TV Reporter Tejaswini Ramesh who turned against him later.
In Mandya, the choice was between Ramya and LR Shivarame Gowda (former MLA from Nelamangala) but the Congress party chose to field Ramya because she has strong backing from former chief minister S M Krishna, former minister D K Shivakumar and housing minister Ambarish. The Congress, on its part, has sought the support of Samajwadi Party MLA from Channapatna C P Yogeshwar in the by-poll to Bangalore rural seat.
However, it is the politics behind this nomination that is more interesting than the candidates. Wining these two Lok Sabha would be the first litmus test for Congress Party under the Chief Ministership of Siddaramaiah and will be a trendsetter for the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. S.M.Krishna and D K.Shivakumar are the only people who can take up the responsibility in both Lok Sabha elections. Both the constituencies are Vokkaliga dominated. Both these leaders hail from the Vokkaliga community and wield immense control. Also these two segments have turned into JDS dominated areas since last few years.
D.K.Shivakumar and S.M.Krishna are both in hibernation at the moment. Mr. D.K.Shivakumar having been denied a ministerial birth is sulking and staying away from media. D.K.Shivakumar is the one person who can convince Mr. Krishna’s followers to participate in the upcoming by-elections. Both the constituencies are heavily vokkaliga dominated areas. D.K.Shivakumar has been pressing the point with Congress High command that to play a pivotal role it is best that he be made a minister before the elections. This will enthuse him and will galvanize the party in the region. It may be noted the entire Ramanagara DCC, elected local body leaders and other party leaders had submitted their resignations to Dr. Parameshwar in protest as their leader has not been recognized by the party.
Secondly, Shivakumar has fought the JDS for almost 25 years now single handedly. He has fought former Prime Minister Mr. H.D.Devegowda and former CM Mr. H.D.Kumaraswamy and has been the key person in defeating them in previous elections. If the JDS has been checkmated in this region, it solely because of him. That’s is why both Digvijaya Singh and KPCC President suggested requested Shivakumar or Shivakumar’s brother to contest the elections as he is best equipped to do so.
Even otherwise, the Vokkaliga community in general has been miffed with Sidharamaiah and he knows that keeping DK out of the game would be dangerous for the party prospects even in the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls. Many senior Congressmen have been saying in private that even DK Shivkumar’s silence would be dangerous and it would be in the best interest of the party to bring him on board.
It was here that the AICC General Secretary in charge Mr Digvijaya Singh and understood that belligerent Dk Shivkumar would have to be placated if the Congress party wants to win both bye elections and that is how he also put his weight behind him.
A case in the point was the by-elections for the Periyapatna assembly constituency after the General Elections, where the margin of victory was only about 2000. Periapatna neighbors the CM’S constituency. People had anticipated that the party here would win by over at least 25,000 votes. This drop was expected votes is because the Vokkaliga community did not support the CM and has antagonized the Vokkaliga community which accounts for over 53 percent voters in both segments.
Similarly, the SC/ST community which has at least 17 percent votes share in these areas, also feels slighted because Dr. G.Parameshwara has also been ignored by the CM. The SC/ST community feel that the CM had a hand in defeating him in the recent Assembly polls.
In addition, several Vokkaliga Mutts were raided last fortnight. That led to tremendous outrage and impression started gaining ground that the entire congress party is against the Vokkaliga. As a result of this there were large protest in the old Mysore area by Vokkaliga pontiff’s apart from Mandya Bangalore and Tumkur.
Also, the fact that Shivakumar has not been given a cabinet berth is a also a major sore point with the community. Even opposition parties have gone on record saying that the Vokkaliga community is being ignored and have cited the fact that someone of the stature of Shivakumar – a vokkaliga leader – has been sidelined and a sulking Shivkumar would prove to be more dangerous for the party than otherwise.
Yet another headache for the KPCC President as well as the Chief Minister was the selection of candidate for Mandya because both SK Krishna and Ambareesh have been at logger heads and it would be extremely difficult to bring both of them together. It is here that fielding Ramya did the trick.
More than that, even the loss of one of these two seats would be a huge embarrassment for the Congress party and that in turn would have a cascading impact all over the country. The Congress cannot afford to take any chances and it would have to ensure victory at both places at any cost. It is here that DK Shivkumar and SM Krishna would have to play a positive role.
Above all, it could be the first litmus test for the AICC general Secretary in charge Digvijaya Singh who has been making media headlines for his quixotic quips and quotes. That remains that whole some of his comments on specific issues may look outlandish and his stand on controversial issue may invite outrage, Digvijaya Singh has been a candy politician who is not easy for everyone to understand. For last ten years, he has been combining many roles. Sometimes, he has been like a ‘safety vent’ for the Congress party while at others, he has been the ‘dissenting voice from within’ and at times ‘he has also played the role of a punching bag’.
Yet the crux of all that is that he is an extremely sharp politician and a cool calculator whose earlier experience with Karnataka as the Chairman of selection committee in 2008 Assembly polls came handy in this round of selection and the victory of Congress candidates in these two bye-polls would obviously add to his stature.
The BJP on the other hand, appears to have become the biggest joke in the whole process. For public consumption, the BJP is understood to have entered into a tacit understanding with the JD-S for the bye-poll. Accordingly, the party will not field its candidates in either constituency, to help the JD-S, which in turn will help the BJP in the coming by-elections to three Legislative Council seats.
Yet the fact remains that the BJP remains completely shattered from within and immensely demoralized and out of sync from the machination of team Modi. It is ironical that a national party which is dreaming of snatching power from the Congress led UPA II in 2014 polls, cannot manage to put two dummy candidates even for “NOORA KUSHTI’. It is still caught up in between ‘to be or not to be’ with regard to the possible return of BS yeddyurappa and hence, it has already forfeited its right to exists even as a meaningful opposition party in Karnataka.
(Posted on August 4, 2013 @ 6.00am)
(Ajay N Jha is a veteran journalist from both Print and Electronic media. He is the President and CEO of WICS Global Communications. His email id is Ajay N Jha <ajayjha30@gmail.com> )
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