ENARADA, New Delhi
By Ajay N Jha
Yesterday’s verdict on Lok Sabha bye-polls in Bangalore Rural and Mandya was an eye opener for many parties and politicians. It not only proved many things to many people but also gave a clear indication of shape of things to come in Karnataka in the coming days.
Karnataka also created a unique record by making Ramya as the youngest Member of Parliament in the country. Ramya is only the second Congress candidate after veteran actor-politician Ambareesh to win the Lok Sabha seat in Mandya, which is traditionally a bastion for the Janata Dal Secular because of the dominant Vokkaliga community in the area.
This win was all the more “special” for her because foster father RT Narayan died the day she filed her nomination, raising doubts if she would contest the polls. However, the multi-lingual actress put up a brave face, and has now come out trumps. She has served in the Congress party’s youth wing for a brief period before jumping into the race to become a Member of the Parliament.
In Bangalore Rural Parliamentary segment which has close to 20 lakh voters and which is spread across over 95 kms from kunigal to Anekal, it was a spectacular victory for Congress and heartbreaking defeat for JDS as former Chief Minister H D Kumaraswamy’s wife Anitha Kumaraswamy lost by a huge margin of over 1.37 lakh votes to ruling party’s D K Suresh, brother of state party leader D.K.Shivakumar.
In Mandya, Multi-lingual actress Ramya on her electoral debut defeated C S Puttaraju of JDS, the nucleus of his party’s Vokkaliga vote base, by a margin of 67,611 votes. That was when the polling had been just around 51 percent and the voters turn out in some assembly segments including Rajarajeshwarinagar and Bangalore South remained abysmally low.
The biggest casualty in this election was BJP which appears to have rubbed more salt on its own wounds by having an electoral tie-up with JD(S). This unholy “alliance of opportunism” was as disastrous as ‘mixing Arrack with milk’.
The BJP in karnataka which was comprehensively routed in the May Assembly polls continues to be in shambles and it has brought another round of shame to its credit by joining hands with JD(S) in the name of political expediency.
Not only BJP voters refused to come out to vote for JD(S) candidates, they gave a clear indication that By Yeddyurappa’s absence would continue to haunt it in the coming days. It made BJP a laughing stock in the eyes of the karnataka voters because here was a national party which was dreaming of upstaging the Congress in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and yet it could not muster up the courage to field even two candidates in karnataka.
For Janata Dal(S), it was more like jumping from a frying pan into fire. Not only it lost two lok Sabha seats in its own bastion, it also sent a clear message to HD kumaraswamy that he was no more the Lord of Gowdaland. HD Deve Gowda family which had once again put its own prestige at stake by fielding Anita kumarswamy, found itself at the receiving end.
It turned out to be a double whammy for Anita kumarsway in particular who lost the electoral battle twice in a span of just 4 months. Samajwadi Party MLA, C P Yogeshwar, had defeated Anita Kumaraswamy in the May polls.
More than that, it put a big question mark on the very credential of Janata Dal(S) which tom-tomed its “Secular” image ad nausium and yet joined hands with a communal party like BJP for a small political gain. It was comical to see ‘the Appa makkala party” becoming a spectacle of ‘Gowda’s Gadla’ in its own house. JD(S) which used to command a sizeable number of Muslim voters in these two parliamentary segments could not succeed in bringing them to the polling booth as these Muslim voters felt cheated and they chose to shift their support for Congress.
For the Congress party, it was a well-orchestrated and well- executed plan. Everyone at the top had to prove a point and all of them did it with elan and aplomb.
Chief Minister Siddaramaiah silenced his critics with this spectacular victory and has consolidated his position immensely. Those Congress leaders who had been questioning his credentials as ‘an outsider from Janata Dal’ are forced to take back their words because he has not only keep the faith of Congress High command but also proved his own credential as ‘a master strategist’ who meant business. He was the one to walk up to a sulking DK Shivkumar and goaded him to field his brother Dk Suresh in the best interest of the party and ensured that both party candidates romped home comfortably. Sidharamaaih put in his Home Minister KJ George in Bangalore Rural and HC Mahadevappa in Charge of Mandya to ensure the Dalit vote.
For KPCC President Dr G Parameshwar, it was a great opportunity to redeem his pride and prestige and he did that admirably. Given that Dr Parameshwar enjoys the direct patronage of Congress President in Delhi, he made effort to break ice with DK Shivkumar not only by forcing to take oath in the Assembly as MLA on the last day of the last session, he was also instrumental in pulling out a rabbit from nowhere in the shape of film actress Ramya for Mandya seat and ensure that both SM krishna and Ambareesh got their acts together. Dr Parameshwar also quietly ensure the support of 17 percent Dalit voters in these two segments
Karnataka Home Minister KJ George has been a very quiet but meticulous planner. As Minister in Charge of Bangalore Rural district, he ensured that he kept the faith of both his CM as well as the party High command by ‘carefully calibrating his execution plan and touched and personally supervised every nook and corner of the battlefield’. The same exercise had been undertaken by Minister HC Mahadevappa in Mandya which looked like an impregnable fort given that JD(S) had five MLAS from this Parliamentary segment.
DK Shivkumar had the highest stake in these bye elections. Not only the prestige of his younger brother Dk Suresh was at stake, any mishap at this juncture would have jeopardized his own political career. Dk Shivkumar went into isolation for three months after he was denied a Ministerial berth following some allegations against him. His silence was becoming too loud for the party.
Everyone acknowledged that he was the only Congress leader capable to taking on HD Gowada clan anytime anywhere because he was equally strong in both money and muscle power and a sulking Shivkumar would have proved too costly for the party. That’s how he was called to meet Congress President twice and asked to ensure the party’s victory.
Unfortunately, DK Shivkumar has been a victim of some unsavory publicity as a rowdy politician as well as a quirk and short-tempered politician. The fact is that he has undergone a sea change in last few years and is now emerging as a ‘master tactician’. This was witnessed by his ‘out of the block ’thinking. Not only key players of his core team like Vijay Mulgund to Raghunandan Rammana did him proud by ’executing his game plan in their allotted areas’, he also ensured that he never stamped the toe of any senior party leaders in the bargain. He exhibited his superlative intelligence and native cunning by managing to bring in BB Ramaswamy Gowda, Ravi Kiran and Madhunme Gowda together at kunigal but also roped in the support of Samajwadi Party MLA CP Yogeshwar who commands at least 30000 votes at Channapatna.
The funniest part was that at least two local channels kept showing a lot of negative programnmes to tarnish the image of DK Suresh as land grabber and granite mafia and yet nothing happened. His victory at the end only demonstrated that DK Shivkumar had now taken over the mantle of Vokkaliga leadership in the state and it was time that the Congress High command recognized his worth.
On the other hand, Ramya’s victory in Mandya was a bigger challenge for the Chief Minister personally because the Congress candidate was a rookie and Mandya had always remained of bastion of Deve Gowda. What many political pundits did not remember was that Sidharamaiah had himself remained an important cog in Deve Gowda election machinery and he knew every nook and corner of that area and that is how he could checkmate his rivals both from within and outside.
Not only he knew the nuisance value of JD(S) leader DC Tammanna in Maddur and the tug of war between SM krishna and Ambareesh, he also understood the worth of Ravindra Srikanthaih in Srirangapatna and former Speaker Krishna in KR Pet and he had no qualms in getting KRS leader Puttanaiah at his side to ensure a better share of votes in Pandavapura area for Ramya where the Congress candidate had barely managed to get 3000 votes in the last assembly polls.
This victory would open a new chapter in Karnataka politics for a variety of reasons.
1. Karnataka Chief Minister Sidharamaiah’s position had become stronger and the Congress High command would give him a free hand to run the administration and prepare better for the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls. The Congress High command would look towards Karnataka to offset the possible loss of seats in Andhra Pradesh.
2. D.K. Shivakumar will now once again stake his claim for a cabinet berth. He was kept out in May on charges that he did not have a clean image but now the Congress would find it difficult to ignore his claims. It would be in the best interest of the party to bring him in and give him the charge of entire Vokkaliga dominated area in the State to prepare for 2014.
3. This would be yet another warning for both JD(S) and BJP not to play the same kind of game in future as the Voters of Karnataka were smart enough to separate the chaff from corn. The JD(S) would also loose a sizeable number of voters to Congress party in the coming days.
4. The BJP would be forced to go back to the basics if it wants to improve its image and tally of seats in 2014 polls. The BJP lost deposit in 111 constituencies in the Karnataka assembly polls in May. This roughly translates to about 13 Lok Sabha seats, which means the BJP has a lot of work to do if it wants to do well next year. Just Narendra Modi may not be enough.
5. The JD(S) appears to have started losing its sheen and it would be extremely difficult for the party henceforth to resurrect itself as a “viable regional alternative.” HD kumarawamsy’s grand idea of forming ‘Third front’ at the national level would prove to be yet another ‘national affront’.
(Posted on August 25, 2013 @ 7.05pm)
(Ajay N Jha is a veteran journalist from both Print and Electronic media. He is the President and CEO of WICS Global Communications. His email id is Ajay N Jha <ajayjha30@gmail.com> )
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