Lessons from the Assembly polls

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Tongue N Cheek

ENARADA, New Delhi, 

by Ajay N Jha

The writing was quite evident on the wall but the Congressmen feared to read them. The grand-old 127 years old party had started crumbling from within but the leaders chose to ignore that. The symptoms of structural failure and chinks in the armour was becoming too glaring and yet the leadership kept brushing that under the carpet. The steam of local and state level leadership are started drying up fast and yet no effort was made to reclaim or energize it. The Congress party’s traditional vote bank has already vanished and the young voters have turned away from it.

All these factors together have started becoming a Frankenstein for the Congress leadership and with Rahul Gandhi card having become ineffective and inadequate in arrest the saffron surge across the country, the Congress leadership appears to have once again plunged into throes of crisis of credibility.

The BJP on the other hand, has emerged more strong and  Gujarat Chief Minister’s relentless campaign against the Congress party has clearly made an impact. Modi’s pincer attack on the Prime Minister and the Gandhis has started creating nationwide ripples and his crusade on corruption and various  scams during the UPA II regime has already started alienating the middle class voters away from the Congress.

Modi’s nationwide appeal may have been laughed at by a few congress leaders yet the fact remains that he has played the role of a positive catalyst for the BJP. His campaign across the country has indeed fired-up the BJP and the RSS cadre and that is going to help the party in the coming days.

Secondly, Modi’s star power and charishma in rallying various groups which have been traditional BJP supporters is going to strengthen the BJP further and the young voters in particular.

Moreover, Modi has been instrumental in guiding and goading those floating and undecided voters to fall into the BJP kitty and that has been a major factor in the victory of BJP in the State Assembly elections.

On the hindsight, it is not that Modi is not helping the BJP win everywhere as some of the BJP leaders are making a case for him.  Modi has just become a symbol of popular antipathy to the Congress and its top leadership and he is just reaping the harvest of discontent shown by the Congress in UPA II regime.

 ENARADA Graphics

Catharsis in Congress

Different States, different players, different playgrounds, different rules and yet the same result. !!. It is time for the Congress leadership to sit back and dispassionately analyse as to what has been destroying the Congress? Why is the party losing everywhere? Why it has walked away from the needs and aspirations of AAM AADMI? Why Congress Rahul Gandhi has failed as a leader? Why Congress poll managers have become so staid, slate, inefficient and incompetent in gauging the mood of the electorate? Where would it go from here and who would lead the party now in the forthcoming Lok Sabha Polls?

Whatever logic and explanations may be given by Congress leaders on camera yet the fact remains that nothing has worked for the Congress in last four years. Be that Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab, Goa and these five states including Chhattishgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi and even Mizoram, nothing has worked for the Congress party. If this could be hailed as the semi-final, then there are clear indication that the Congress party would struggle to even get into three digits in the forthcoming polls and it would have tough time in getting into two digits in the Hindi heartland.

The Congress party could have easily snatched Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh from BJP but it lost its path mid-way. It was in opposition in both States and it had everything to gain from voter fatigue against the government. The Congress party had a big advantage in Chhattisgarh in the first phase but it got smug and slackened in the second phase and that gave a big opportunity to BJP to consolidate its position. There was an undercurrent of sympathy for the party in the Chhattisgarh and yet it could not capitalize on it.

In Madhya Pradesh, the Congress party could not stir up corruption and bad governance in Madhya Pradesh and “undeclared war between Suresh Pachauri and Digvijaya Singh faction apart from snipes at Jyotiraditya Sindhia took away the advantage.    Media publicity and State level campaign remained lethargic and the Congress party could not pin down BJP governments in Madhya Pradesh with aggressive campaign material.

Former CM Jagadish Shetar and other BJP leaders in Hubli celebrating about the BJP's victory
Former CM Jagadish Shetar and other BJP leaders in Hubli  celebrating about the BJP’s victory. Photo by KIRAN BAKALE

In Rajasthan, the government was in power and it had a credible face in Ashok Gehlot. The government acted like Santa Claus for almost two years distributing the wealth of the State with both hands in the name of welfare schemes and yet the party faced a rout. The party could not publicize its achievements in Rajasthan and interference from central leaders only added to the chagrin of the Chief Minister.

There was no unanimity among the Rajasthan chief Minister, Dr CP Joshi and AICC general secretary Gurdas kamat on many issues and even the last minute intervention by Shri Gulam Nabi Azad could not stem the tide against the Congress. Moreover, Rebel candidates and dummies (propped by a few congress leaders) also became a source of headache for the party in some areas.

In Delhi, The party had a charismatic leader in Shiela Dixit with a proven record of good governance. Arvind kejriwal’s AAM Admi party(AAP) not only made the contest triangular but also divided the Congress vote to an unimaginable extent. Moreover, Chief Minister’s quote to electronic media on possible tie up with AAP, was taken with a bag full of salt by many voters. At the end, Chief Minister Sheila dixit not only lost her own seat but the Congress party could not get into double digit.

But the biggest disappointment was the “ failure of Rahul Gandhi weapon” which the party had hoped to use as a ‘game changer”. This was vindicated by a very senior Congress leader in a private conversation who said that “The Congress party can keep foisting Mr Rahul Gandhi on the electorate and we can never dare oppose him because he is the scion of the party’s first family. But it is clear that people are not prepared to accept him in the current Avatar. The sooner our party accepts this, the faster it can start re-building itself”.

Rahul Gandhi’s close confidants have always been using the term “game changer” more often to demonstrate that his ideas and ideals are different from the present dispensation.  Results of this round of assembly polls have once again proved that it did prove to be a “game changer” but in reverse. Instead of mobilising the electorate and translating them into vote, Rahul Gandhi’s “poori roti Khayenge. Congress ko Jitayenge( Borrowed from Indira Gandhi election manifesto) in fact, boomeranged on him and his party. Now, the Congress party think tank would be forced to either abandon the term ‘game changer” or would have to look for fresh ideas and epithets… and better plan and projects to reclaim the term.

Congress party insiders  admit that “ As heir to the Nehru Gandhi dynasty, there are but two possible reasons for the party to look to Rahul Gandhi. One was their belief in the possibility of Rahul Gandhi’s  ability to enthuse voters on the basis of his pedigree while  the other  was that that he may be able to revitalise a decaying party organisation through his more scientific plans and preparations. “

But a look at the rallies of Rahul Gandhi in a few rallies clearly indicate that he is not a man who has a natural connect with crowds. “He lacks the fluency and charisma that marks a politician who can excite or charm an audience. His mannered behaviour, his stiff body language and his inability to speak Hindi in a fashion that the audience can relate to, has clearly put paid to any expectation of mass support” says a veteran political commentator.

It is no coincidence that by far the greater part of his energy ever since Mr Gandhi  entered politics, has been given over to this effort. On many occasions, he has proved to be an enigma and surprised both his friends and foes alike with his quips and quotes on some important issues. And it is here that his failure is most evident, and provides the clearest evidence that it may be best for the party to look beyond Rahul Gandhi.

More than that however, it is the systematic organizational failure and decay within the Congress party which appears to have landed it in such a precipice and for that many people would have to take the collective blame. Says another political analyst “The fall of Rahul Gandhi as a leader is not the only problem with the Congress party, Manmohanomics and Sonianomics too have to take an equal share of blame for the present mess”.

There is a lot of truth in this statement. First, a look at a few statements made by Rahul Gandhi in recent times. Rahul’s gaffe about intelligence agencies briefing him about plots by terror outfits to lure Muslims victims of communal violence in UP raised many hue and cry and quite ostensible so. Apart from the stigmatization that the victims could do without, questions were raised about Rahul’s easy claim that intelligence agencies were briefing him when they had no business doing so because neither he is the Union Home minister nor the Prime minister.  A national newspaper also published a report alleging that that there had been a large-scale of misuse of intelligence agencies to screen possible congress candidates at the behest of Rahul Gandhi and his team.

Second, Rahul Gandhi also kept reminding voters in his speeches that  Land Acquisition Bill was his idea and that he had personally toiled on foot from Bhatta Parsaul to NOIDA in Uttar Pradesh to understand the set of issues related to land acquisition and then pushed the UPA to adopt this idea as Law. He wanted the compensation of the required land to be raised four times the market value in rural areas and twice the market value in urban areas.

But his think tank members perhaps failed to make him understand that the landed  gentry was well-entrenched in the political game and knew how  to play it in its best interests. Business and industry was already opposed to it as it would inflate costs and make the acquiring process so cumbersome that no new ventures would be practically possible. Even Congress President Sonia Gandhi and the rest of Congress party workers remained blissfully oblivious to it and the net result was a dud. !!

Third, Rahul Gandhi also tried to woo the voters in MP and Rajasthan through tear-jerker narration of his mother’s illness and Mrs Gandhi’s regret of not carrying her resolve to press the button during voting in parliament for the Food security Bill. He tried to evoke and connect the sympathetic  and emotional chord by narrating how assassination of his grandmother and father impacted his life. Even his belligerent” tear and throw the nonsense ordinance’ approved by his own party government failed to impress the voters.

Dichotomy between words and Deeds

Rahul Gandhi has always said that he wanted to usher in more democratization in the party and was a votary of giving way to younger faces in elections. But the end result of all such exercises have been confusing and at times, contradictory to his statements. For these Assembly elections, the process of selection of candidates has been entirely the work of Rahul and his team, with the Central Election Committee (CEC) headed by Sonia Gandhi virtually serving to endorse the selection. A report in The Indian Express quoted a CEC member as saying that, “At CEC meetings, names are taken and cleared almost like a ritual as we know Rahulji and his team have done the background check through independent surveys, intelligence agencies and various other sources. Madam (Sonia) does not intervene anymore and watches the proceedings silently.”

A few members of team Rahul also suggested that he has always favoured credible young faces. Yet the biggest howler on this score was the Congress party’s decision to give ticket to a 80 year old Ameri Devi, the mother of Malkhan Singh Bisnoi who remains the main accused in Bhanwari devi abduction and murder case. In Delhi, Sajjan Kumar’s son was given Congress party ticket even as the Supreme Court has ordered the commencement of yet another trial for murder against   his father. That was interpreted as Congress party’s strange way of making amends to the Sikh community in an election where it has been making so much of noise about its concern for the minorities and no wonder then that the Congress lost State Elections miserably.

Even otherwise, this kind of “top down selection approach” puts paid to the hype of inner party democracy. Rahul’s major achievement in terms of party reorganisation seems to have been to place great reliance on people like him who have inherited the privileges of power. In Rajasthan for example, both Sachin Pilot and  Bhanwar jitendra Singh were made co-chairmen of the poll campaign committee. “This multiplication of imitations of Rahul across the party has virtually ensured that there are no grass root leaders of any importance emerging from within the party structure. At the very least, the result of Rahul’s intervention should have been the selection of candidates who represent the new and progressive face of the party” said a Senior Editor of a Prominent Hindi daily from Jaipur.

They may not say that in public but a section of Congressmen have  started questioning if the ability to win a seat is to override all constraints of public morality then isn’t much of the posturing being done by Rahul just hypocrisy? If a small coterie of people, with no direct experience of how politics actually plays out on the ground in this country, can actually rely on survey agencies and, far more problematically, on the intelligence agencies to select candidates, what was Rahul doing over the past few years trying to build the party from the bottom up?

In the same way, a few questions are now being raised on Congress President Sonia Gandhi’s own brand of politics what they call “ Sonianomics”. They describe her as super government and her super constitutional position as the Chairperson of national Advisory Council (NAC). Issues like Food Security Bill and Director Cash Transfer schemes (aapka paisa aapke haath) have been attributed to her and yet the voters gave a decisive mandate to BJP in the recent round of Assembly polls. The Rajasthan debacle was clear pointer that even distribution of freebees and doles in the election year does not help that Rahul Gandhi claimed to be the best governed and a role model for others..

What next

It is here that the Congress leadership would have to invent a new wheel. It would have to change its leaders, politics and economics completely. It would have to start from the basics if it wants to be relevant in Indian political arena. It would have to look beyond Rahul vote bank politics, Manmohanimics and Sonianomics.

In the aftermath of reversals in Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Goa, senior Congress leaders were quick to blame failure on State organizational units without caring to think about who has been responsible for organizational health of the Congress party. The same kind excuses are likely to be parroted all over again. But the voice of opposition from within is likely to grow stronger now and the Gandhis would find it difficult to keep up the morale of the party workers to fight the big bang battle against a fiercely resurgent BJP with an aggressive and acerbic Narendra Modi as its Commander.

As a senior commentator writes “What the Congress leaders would have to think of the next few week is the prospect that the grand old party could be wiped out of the political map of the bigger States in northern and eastern parts of India, with governments in only a few states like Karnataka, Assam, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Haryana. This is a disastrous prospects for the party given that it has no chance of revival in Bihar, UP, Odisha, West Bengal or Punjab”.

Under these circumstances,  both Mrs Sonia Gandhi and Mr Rahul Gandhi would have to toil afresh to generate new contents, work out new formula, build up new team of advisors and find out new speech writers because they have already exhausted their right based government rhetoric in this around of Assembly elections.

(Posted on December 8, 2013 @ 4pm)

(Ajay N Jha is a veteran journalist from both Print and Electronic media.  He is Advisor to Prasar Bharti. The views expressed are his personal. His email id is Ajay N Jha <ajayjha30@gmail.com> )

The views expressed on the website are those of the Columnists/ Authors/Journalists / Correspondents and do not necessarily reflect the views of ENARADA.

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