Muzaffarnagar riots and UP Politics (part II)

ENARADA, New Delhi

By Ajay N Jha

In the face of these challenges, it was expected that the Congress party would make a comprehensive strategy not only to arrest the communalization of politics in UP but also to ensure that it got a respectable number of seats in the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls. However, the appointment of Madhusudan Mistry as the AICC General secretary in charge of Uttar Pradesh was hailed as a “master stroke” by member of Rahul Gandhi team while it was seen by a lens of cynicism by  a section of Congress leaders.

Members of RG team saw Mistry’s appointment as a double-benefit in the sense that not only he would be able to understand the game plan of a fellow Gujarati ‘Amit Shah’ in Uttar Pradesh but also that he would be in a better position to coordinate things as OBC face of the party. Mistry had already been entrusted with the responsibility of preparing a date base for the congress candidates across the country for 2014 LS poll and that is how, a 54 member team had been sent all across with a lengthy questionnaire to ascertain the winnability as well as the socio-economic parameters of each and every parliamentary constituency in the country.

Mistry who shot into prominence through his NGO called DISHA in 1985 and for his work with the tribals of Gujarat came into Congress party along with Shankarsinh Waghela and soon won the heart and confidence of Rahul Gandhi for his penchant for computer generated data analysis and impressive set of presentations. Not only he was made the AICC general secretary in charge of Kerala and Karnataka but was also given the responsibility of monitoring MNREGA and a few other responsibilities.

However, the present status of the Congress party in Uttar Pradesh and the challenges ahead are a different ball game altogether. Moreover, Mistry as the replacement of Digvijaya Singh appears to be a disaster for the party for many reasons. The Congress party has come a long way in UP since 1998 when it had even lost Amethi seat. It could get 10 seats in 1999 but managed to get just 9 seats in 2005 when Samajwadi party romped home with 39 seats out of the total of 80.

In 2009 LS polls, the congress party could manage to win 21 seats when Digvijaya Singh was the AICC general Secretary in charge and added another seat of Firozabad when Raj Babbar defeated Dimple yadav.  Yet the combined “ charisma of Rahul Gandhi and Digvijaya Singh’ failed in  attracting voters  in 2012 Assembly polls and the Congress party ended up getting just 28 seats out of the total of 403.

A comparative sturdy of both Digvijaya Singh and Madhusudan Mistry bring out the following differences:-

a)   Digvijaya Singh is one of the tallest leaders of the Congress party who also remained the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh for 10 years. He also enjoys a lot of respect not only in Rajput community of Uttar pradesh but also has his influence in Bundelkhand region. Mistry, on the other hand, comes from the NGO background and is relatively an unknown entity in Uttar Pradesh even today.

b)   Caste equations and personal rapport always play an important role Uttar pradesh role. That is how leaders like Chaudhary Charan Singh or Bir Bahadur Singh used to operate. Digvijaya Singh has a “ Raja tag” from Raghogarh and is respected for his Royal lineage. Mistry on the other hand, comes from the OBC community in Gujarat which cuts little ice in UP.

c)    The name Mistry itself has become a big disadvantage because the people of Uttar Pradesh tread Mistry as a Lohar (carpenter) and even a local Congress leader from the Upper caste would not care to meet him because of that.

d)   Digvijaya Singh has always been a 24 hours politician but Mistry has a very arrogant attitude and he does not meet people as and when they want. That is reason why he was roughed up by a few Congress workers from Meerut recently at his residence when he tried to throw them out because they had not sought his prior appointment.

e)   Digvijaya Singh always met party workers with a big smile as well as the attitude of gratitude. But Mistry has always been a backroom boy and loathes meeting large delegations and interacting with them. That is the precise difference between a leader and a ‘data analyst”.

f)     The voters of Up always like and get influenced by the pomp and show of their leaders.  The old proverb that “Joote men Dum to Neha hain hum” is still loved and lapped up. Mistry does not fit into that category at all and hence, he has already started proving to be a big liability.

g)   A few Congress workers have already complained to senior Congress leaders in Delhi that he wants them to come to Lucknow to meet him even as Delhi is just two hours drive away from Meerut.

Even otherwise, the halo around Mistry as a ‘great strategist and tactician’ is bunkum and more of a hogwash than otherwise. That could be clear from the following facts:-

a) If the UDF came to power in kerala in last Assembly polls, it  was not only because of  anti –incumbency against VS Achyutanandan govt but also because of the performance of the Congress allies. The swing of just 1 to 1.5 percent votes makes or breaks the government in kerala between LDF and UDF. If Congress party would have won kerala because of Mistry’ master Stroke’ then 20 out of the total of 21 candidates  suggested by Mistry would not have lost their deposits. !!

b) Karnataka poll verdict too was more like a “negative vote against BJP’ than a popular mandate in favour of Congress. The Congress party won the elections mainly because of BY yeddyurappa factor as well as  a negative wave against the BJP. Mistry cannot take credit for that alone.

c) Mistry could have shown his mettle as a ‘master strategist’ in 2012 Gujarat Assembly elections because that was his “Home State”. The irony was that Congress party lost all the six(Two parliament and four Assembly seats) seats in the recently held bye-elections in Gujarat despite the fact Mistry had not only played an important role in the selection of candidates but also in the overall campaign and poll conduct.  !!

Uttar Pradesh, in any case is a huge State with 80 Parliamant seats and its Bundelkhand, Awadh, Eastern and Western Uttar Pradesh regions are so different from each other not only in their local ethics and ethos but also internal caste and community dynamics. More than computer data, personal connectivity and contact levels play a very important role. With this round of Muzaffarnagar riots, the whole set of political alignment and polarization scenario has got changes drastically.

In such a changed and charged scenario, how effective and relevant Mistry would remain remains to be seen. That is besides the fact that Mistry is yet to complete the district wise tour and re-structuring of the party at various levels. That process is likely to be completed only by the end of September. That would hardly leave him 4/5 months to prepare for the candidates at all places, plan the campaign strategy and related matters. ( To be continued)

(Posted on September 14, 2013 @ 10.15pm)

(Ajay N Jha is a veteran journalist from both Print and Electronic media.  He is the  President and CEO of WICS Global Communications.  His email id is Ajay N Jha <ajayjha30@gmail.com> )

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