ENARADA, Bangalore
By Mathihalli Madan Mohan
The outcome of the just concluded bye elections to loksabha from Mandya and Bangalore Rural where the JDS finds itself totally drubbed has far reaching significance future of the Karnataka politics.
Firstly, it is quite clear that the voters by and large remained disinterest in the attempts made being made by the JDS/BJP-KJP to forge a broad anti Congress alliance keeping the forthcoming parliament poll. The reasons are too far to seek. The alliance partners were quite tentative in their approach. And the voters reciprocated in the same way.
The tie-up is still in an embryonic stage, with no firm commitment on the part of the partners to the proposed alliance. And there was nothing the campaign to that love and hate relationship between the BJP and JDS has assumed positive overtones shorn of mutual leg pulling tendencies.
The arrangement was lacking in clarity. Neither the JDS extended open invitation to the partners to participate in the joint campaign, nor the latter was unduly enthusiastic in doing so. Had there been some semblance of the joint campaign and active involvement jointly, votes of the core BJP supporters in the two constituencies would have flowed into the kitty for the JDS. It did not happen. The JDS could not even retain the Bangalore Rural, which had won last time with a huge margin or hold on the slight edge it had in Mandya.
It would however be too early to write off the move as a nonstarter. Still there is lot of time at the disposal of the parties concerned to work out the details before the parliament elections take place. Too many contradictions, which marked their unsavory relations in the past, remain to be sorted out. They must come out of mood of mutual distrust and make concerted efforts to convince the voters that they are there to stay. “Let bygones be bygones “mood is the leit- motif of their mutual relations now. It certainly takes some time to let the people convinced about their bonfires.
Look at the emerging political scenario in the country and in the state, the alliance between the two combinations is a political necessity for the political survival of both. The JDS is strong in the southern part of the state while the BJP dominates the northern part of the state. It is only when they combine that they can stop the juggernaut of the Congress in the forthcoming loksabha election. Both will be doomed and face uncertain political future if they don’t come together and work by sinking their differences.
Secondly the win in the two bye election has helped three month old Siddaramaiah led Congress government, to win a crucial psychological battle of wits of sorts against its inveterate political rival in the southern part of the state, namely the JDS, led by the patriarch Devegowda and his son the former Chief Minister Mr. Kumaraswamy.
What has made the Congress savour the victory is that it has been able to snatch both seats, from the JDS, which were considered to be its bastions, and in the process dealt a body blow to the pride of the father and son duo of Devegowda and Kumaraswamy. Their improved performanance in the assembly elections had spurred their ambitions of planning for a bigger role in the forthcoming loksabha elections. With the two main combinations led by the Congress and the BJP unable to reach the halfway mark in the coming elections, Mr. Devegowda thinks that his party with substantial number of seats in its pockets can play a vital role for the third front made up of nonCongress and NonBJP parties in the days to come. And the bye-election polls have reminded him of the political ground realities and that his party cannot afford to play a lonely furrow any longer.
Mandya has for long been a bastion of Congress barring occasional aberrations. The victory of Mr. Cheluvarayaswamy of the JDS in the 2009 parliament elections over the cine star Ambarish was more a fluke than anything, since the Congress was not a pushover. Coming within four years of the earlier parliamentary poll, the 2013 elections had proved that the JDS is firmly entrenched. With the BJP committing a political hara-kiri through its internal strife, the JDS had improved on its votes tally and had lead of 72,000 votes over Congress.
It is with this confidence it faced the bye poll to loksabha. It had enough strength on its own to bring about the win, since the BJP had practically been a political non- entity. But the voting pattern despite all the talk of the reduced poll percentage has virtually given a jolt to the aspirations of the JDS. Barring Melkote, where it had marginal lead, the JDS was trailed behind Congress in all other seven assembly segments.
In a matter of three months between the general assembly elections and the present bye election to loksabha, the JDS could discover with dismay, the perception of the voters had changed. The party, which had won the assembly seats of Maddur, Shrirangaptana, Nagamangala and K R Nagar, could not hold on to them this time, It could lead in the only constituency of Melkote despite slight erosion in its base.
As for as votes tally, is concerned, it suffered erosion in almost all segments. Its only gain was in K R Pet, where it got 54,000 additional votes, where it had no nominee in the assembly elections while trailing behind Congress. In all other segments, the erosion of votes continued, the biggest erosions taking place in Maddur (30,000), Nagamangala (40,000) K R Nagar (35,000), Malavalli (11,000) and 7000 votes in two segments of Melkote and Shrirangapatna.
The Congress on the other hand, which had won Malavalli, .Mandya, and K R Pet in the assembly elections added four other segments this time in its hunt for votes. It was in Mandya (-30,000), K R Nagar (-19,000) and Nagamangala (7,000) it could not hold to the assembly tally of votes. What however proved crucial for the Congress for its win was the strategic support it got Mr. Yogeshwar in Melkote, which had been brokered by none other than the Chief Minister Mr. Siddaramaiah. Yogeshwar, it may be noted had worsted the Congress and BJP, which had denied him ticket in the assembly elections and successfully contested on the Samajwadi Party ticket. The Congress which could poll only around 2000 votes then, got a whopping 58,000 votes, helping the party to win the bye election with a margin of 64,611 votes.
Bangalore Rural was a more prestigious constituency for the JDS. It was a seat held by Mr. Kumaraswamy, who had won the last parliament poll by a margin of around 1,30,000 votes last. The party chose to field his wife Mrs. Anita Kumaraswamy, notwithstanding her defeat in the assembly poll in a bid to retain the seat, which ultimately proved to be abortive. And the Congress, succeeded in persuading D K Shivakumar, the former Minister, who was denied the berth in the Siddaramaiah cabinet on grounds of pending corruption charges, and gave the seat to his brother D K Shivakumar. The political fight had personal overtones to with the contest regarded as an extension of reigning family feud between the Devegowda and Shivakumar families. Congress and Mr. Shivakumar outsmarted JDS and Devegowda/Kumarswamy combination. What again proved crucial was the support of the Karnataka Socialist Party which had won the Channapatna seat in the assembly election. Its nominee Puttannaiah, the farmers’ leader had worsted both Congress and the BJP while he brought about the solitary win.
The performanance of the Congress was nothing but a disaster in 2009, when its nominee Mrs. Tejasvini Gowda ended with a poor third, with the JDS and BJP sharing the first and second spots respectively. But in 2013 assembly elections, Congress put everybody on notice that it was still a force to be reckoned with. Of the eight assembly constituency in this parliamentary segment , the Congress could win four namely, Rajarajeshwarinagar, Anekal, Magadi and Kanakapur, the JDS could win in two constituencies of Kunigal and Ramanagaram, while the BJP had to be satisfied with a lone win in Bangalore South and Karnataka Socialist Party could bag the solitary seat of Channapatna. The Congress emerged as leading vote catcher, with a total of 5.00 lakh votes, followed by JDS with 4.76 lakh votes. The BJP lagged behind with a total of 2.59 lakh votes.
If the tie-up between JDS and BJP had materialised, the JDS ought to have coasted to comfortable victory here. As the voting figures reveal, it did not work out. And Mrs. Anita Kumaraswamy lost the seat with the same margin with which her husband had won it in the last parliament poll.
Between the parliament poll of 2009 and the present bye election, the JDS witnessed the fluctuation of the political fortunes. While it could establish lead in all but one namely Bangalore South of the eight assembly segments in the loksabha poll, the JDS saw a reversal fortunes, this time. Barring a lead in Ramnagaram, it trailed behind Congress in all other segments.
Between the three month interregnum between the assembly election and the present bye election, the JDS could retain its sway in Ramanagarm while the only other seat it had won namely Rajarajeshwari Nagar, had slipped out of its hand.
The Congress was a poor third in all the eight segments in 2009. But in the just held assembly elections three months ago, it could comeback with a vengeance asserting its primacy to claim wins in Rajarajeshwari nagar, Anekal, Magadi and Kanakapura,. The JDS could win Kunigal and Ramangaram seats, while the BJP had to be satisfied with a lone Bangalore South seat. Channapatna turned its face against the three mainline parties to favour the Karnataka Socialist Party. However in the bye-election, all but one, namely the Ramangaram of the eight segments, the Congress led.
With the exception of Rajarajeshwari Nagar, the Congress improved upon its assembly performanance as for as the votes tally is concerned, with a highest of 64,000 votes coming from Channapatna, thanks to the support extended by the Karnataka Socialist Party. The Congress gained additional votes of over 77,000 votes over its assembly performanance; the JDS had the mortification of losing 35,000 votes in the process, notwithstanding the 34,000 votes additional votes it could secure in Anekal.
What exactly contributed to the turnaround of the Congress in both constituency? The claim by the Chief Minister Mr. Siddaramaiah, attributing it to the performanance of his government hardly carries conviction. This is for two reasons. Firstly, three month is too short a period for any government to make any kind of impact on the people in the interiors. Secondly, this issue hardly figured in the campaign at all. The campaign was full of personal diatribes and mutual recrimination, which stooped to a new low. The derogatory personal reference made by the JDS leaders to the candidature of the Mandya Congress candidate, the cine star Ramya, did not exactly go down well. And in Bangalore Rural, it was all about the saga of personal feud between Devegowda and Shivakumar families.
The only other impact of the win in Bangalore Rural is that Shivakumar, who was in the dog house in the Congress hierarchy, may be suitably rehabilitated, while the two winning candidates will face the fresh election, even before they could get hang of the new found positions.
(Posted on August 26, 2013 @ 5.15pm)
(Author is a Senior Journalist and Columnist. Mobile: +91 94480 74872 Email : madan.mm@gmail.com)
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