The BJP finds itself in a bigger dilemma than before in the post election scenario in Karnataka.
The question is about acting on the clear cut message sent out by the electorate in the just concluded assembly election in the state. The left motif of the verdict as for as the BJP is concerned is simple. It is “Unite or Perish”. The BJP finds itself dethroned as a punishment for the manner in which it has messed up with the mandate of 2008 to rule Karnataka. But at the same time, the electorate has made it clear the party has not forfeited its confidence in the party. The main BJP and the two breakaway groups the KJP of the former Chief Minister Yeddyurappa and the BSR Congress of Sriramulu belonging to the Janaradan Reddy camp, who is jailed in Hyderabad in connection with the illegal mining case, have received 13 lakh votes more than the 2008 belying the expectation that the people had withdrawn their support to the party.
If , even today they close the ranks, they can be a formidable group, with one out of every four voters of the 4.36 crore voter, being a BJP voter in Karnataka, a feat which has been achieved by the Congress also this time to prove that the Karnataka is heading for a bipolar political system.
This has assumed significance in the context of the crucial loksabha elections, slated to take place in a couple of months time, where the number becomes more important for the plans of the two combinations led by the BJP and Congress, which are eager to capture power at the Centre.
For all practical purposes, Karnataka would be the main battleground between the two combinations. With Congress slated to do badly in Andhra Pradesh, it is depending on Karnataka to make up for whatever loss it may sustain in Andhra Pradesh. For the BJP also Karnataka support is crucial because it is the only state south of Vindhyas which can contribute to its political kitty. The Congress finds itself in advantageous position, in view of its success in the assembly elections. But for the BJP, unless it takes steps to close the ranks and bring Yeddyurappa and Sriramulus outfits in its fold, it is going to be a losing proposition .
Incidentally, both the national leadership of the BJP and Yeddyurappa in Karnataka have to bear the responsibility for the downfall from a high pedestal in Karnataka. The BJPs national leadership virtually abdicated its responsibility of controlling the affairs of Karnataka in general and checking the wayward behaviour of Yeddyurappa even when things were brought to their notice. At one time, the some of them in the national leadership even abetted the growing dissidence within the party in Karnataka especially the open rebellion of the Reddy brothers, which called names and openly humiliated the Chief Minister Yeddyurappa. The rebels were not even reprimanded mildly. On the other hand, Yeddyurappa cast himself above the party and started behaving like he was more powerful than the party.. And seized with a sense of personal glorification, Yeddyurappa did not mind splitting the party, saying that he wanted to teach a lesson to the national leadership. He did prove his point but he also went down along with the party. He had struck at the very root of the branch on which he was standing and paid the price for his political misadventurism.
But the biggest problem is could there be a meeting of minds between the BJP leadership and Yeddyurappa and Sriramulu groups. Yeddyurappa is a terribly egocentric person, with whom a working compromise is difficult to be reached. And BJP’s national leadership would find it difficult to reconcile with Yeddyurappa, since the latter had been very nasty in dealing with the leadership and had merrily traded on the toes of several in the party setup. He had gone to the extent of berating his own government and he was more vocal in the criticism of the BJP government than the main rival the Congress. Its party spokesman Mr. Dhananjaya Kumar had even mounted an attack leveling corruption charges against the BP’s patriarch L KAdvani and though Yeddyurappa quickly tried to distance himself from the criticism, Dhananjaya Kumar persisted with it.
It is not that the parent BJP is not interested in bringing about unity.
The two breakaway factions also badly need the same in the interest of their sheer survival politically. Yeddyurappa, who was tomtomming from the house top that his party would either to come to power on its own or would be a pivotal role in the ministry making exercises in the post poll scenario, is today a much disappointed man. With Congress gaining majority of its own, there is absolutely no role to play for him now. The Karnataka electorate has burst his bubble and shown him his rightful place in the Karnataka’s political pantheon. And a person, who functioned as Leader of the Opposition, Deputy Chief Minster and later Chief Minister finds himself as a leader of a motley group of six legislators today. He has to pocket his pride and function as a simple legislator.
And continuing with this group, does not offer him any opportunity to regain the primacy he once enjoyed, and he will have to continue to play the fourth fiddle in Karnataka, the first three places having been reserved for the two main parties, the Congress and BJP, with JDS in the third position. And the chances of the party surviving on personal charisma coupled with rhetoric look quite dim at the moment. The BSR party which also aimed a high, finds itself in a position more pitiable than Yeddyurappa. The political power has turned out to be mirage and he can only hope to regain the political clout, if he comes back to the parent party. Both of them certainly have no grit and stamina to continue to plough a lonely furrow like Devegowda of JDS.
The BJP at the national level is pitching on corruption as a main plank to take on the Congress in the loksabha election. But the Karnataka elections have proved that the corruption as an issue does not cut much ice with the voters. If the voters were so agitated against the corrupt record of the BJP government under Yeddyurappa, where most of the corruption charges had their origin, none of them, it should have been a washout going by shrillness of the campaign and media publicity.. None of them connected directly or indirectly with BJP should have been elected. But on the other hand, all prominent personalities, whose names had been dragged in the corruption cases including Yeddyurappa regarded as fountain head of the corruption in the state, had no difficulty in being reelected. Both Yeddyurappa and Sriramulus group have been rewarded with handsome chunk of votes, while the BJP was a party, had to pay a heavy price for the brand of corruption stuck to its image. One would not be wrong to come to conclusion that if Yeddyurappa were to move away in a huff out of the parent party, and faced the election as a BJP man, the party could have better than Congress.
The message about the prospects BJP’s of revival is inherent in the very nature of the manner in which the electorate has expressed its political preferences. The base of the BJP has shrunk from 88 lakhs to 63 lakhs, a hefty loss of 25 lakhs votes. But its two breakaway groups, the KJP of Yeddyurappa and BSR Congress of Sriramulu, between themselves have raked up 38 lakhs votes in their maiden entry in the electoral arena. They are definitely the BJP votes, since the no party other than BJP has suffered from the erosion of base, the prospects of the two outfits, getting votes from the Congress and the JDS simply does not arise, mainly because their base got enlarged. Under the circumstances the combined strength of the parent BJP and the two breakaway groups reveals the combination getting an additional 13 lakhs votes to its kitty.
As a consequence the combined strength gives the parties ( 62.32 lakhs -BJP+ 30.68 lakhs -KJP +8.38 lakhs-BSR) gives a base of more than one crore among 4.36 crore electorate in Karnataka. And this means, that regardless of the poll turn out, one of out of four of the 4.36 crore electotate is a BJP voter, which is the same as has been achieved by the Congress. And the two parties find themselves on level so to say as for as electoral base is concerned..
At the moment both the BJP and the Yeddyurappa have ruled out the prospects of coming together for the forthcoming loksabha elections. But would be forced in days to come to have second thoughts. One need not take Yeddyurappa’s statement on the face value, since he is known not to stand by the statement he makes.
(Posted on May 31, 2013 @ 10.50pm)
(Author is a Senior Journalist and Columnist. Mobile: +91 94480 74872 Email : madan.mm@gmail.com)
