eNarada, New Delhi
By AJAY N JHA
In its quest for 272 + seats in this round of Lok Sabha elections to so storm into power, both the BJP and the RSS have been trying a few new formulas and equations. But a few small glitches are quite obvious.
One is the inordinate delay in the release of BJP manifesto which has started putting a few doubts in the people’s mind that either all is not well within BJP or a section of BJP leadership is not yet prepared to allow the Sangh dominance in the name of Modi. It is also being said that Modi does not want Murli Manohar Joshi’s stamp on the BJP manifesto and it wants to make “inclusive growth and development as a bigger agenda than the Ram Mandir”.
While there is no doubt that Modi has caught up with people’s imagination across the country in a big way, there is no wave like situation. In fact, Modi’s stock appears to have started sliding down a bit in last 7 days. In addition, inordinate delay on the finer modalities of tie-up between BJP and TDP has left many tongues wagging.
The BJP has been trying to consolidate its gains in the cow belt states where it is hopeful of a bumper results including BJP ruled states like MP, Rajasthan, Chhattishgarh and is likely to make a bit dent in the Congress-NCP vote bank In Maharashtra as well. That alone is not going to give it a huge lead. That is the reason why BJP is making a well- orchestrated effort to increase its presence in fringe States like Odisha, West Bengal, Assam and the North East.
More than that, it is trying to orchestrate a fresh plan through forging alliance with smaller and regional parties down South which accounts for 130 Parliament seats.
Andhra Pradesh is one State where the BJP is smelling success and sizeable of number of seats, thanks to the bifurcation of Telangana and a total dismantling of the Congress party because of a variety of reasons. YS Rajshekhar reddy was the person who led the party to spending victory and gave a massive lead from the State which helped Congress party come to power both in 2004 and 2009.
The congress party is in shambles now in Andhra Pradesh and that is a big opportunity to step in along with the help of TDP. After almost folding up, BJP-TDP alliance talks have revived and the two parties look set to announce an electoral tie-up in Andhra Pradesh that will see them sharing assembly and Lok Sabha seats in Seemandhra and Telangana. The two sides could settle for BJP contesting eight Lok Sabha and 45 assembly seats in Telangana and 4-5 Lok Sabha and 12-15 assembly seats in Seemandhra.
The BJP had initially sought 45 assembly seats in Telangana in the region’s 119 seats. TDP leaders had conceded that the saffron party had gained political clout after supporting Telangana, but said the claims did not match on ground presence.
In Seemandhra, TDP stuck to its guns that conceding six Lok Sabha seats and 25 assembly seats was not justified as BJP lacks an organizational presence despite a strong pro-Modi sentiment among voters. BJP appears to have finally settled for 12-odd assembly seats of a 175 in the Seemandhra region while TDP does not seem prepared to concede more than four Lok Sabha constituencies.
More than three weeks of one step forward and two steps backward was rather tardy despite the fact that the BJP leadership was keen to seal a pact with TDP despite reservations from the state unit in deference to the larger objective of adding an ally and the potential gain for the national democratic alliance. The logic extended was that rather than squabbling over a couple of Lok Sabha and some assembly seats, the party should keep in mind the likely gain of nearly 20 parliamentary seats if the alliance clicks as anticipated.
BJP appears to be reasonably pleased with getting 40 of 119 assembly seats in Telangana as though it enjoys public acceptability, its organization on the ground is not as vigorous and going alone is not an attractive option at all. Both sides have taken negotiations to the brink with BJP arguing that the stakes for TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu are much higher as a third Lok Sabha and assembly defeat would be catastrophic for him.
Naidu is no mean bargainer either and has played on BJP’s desire to gain allies to protect his turf in Seemandhra where he sees his political future in the wake of the decision to form a separate state of Telangana. TDP has been encouraged by Congress leaders joining its ranks and feels it has gained an edge over rival YSR Congress leader Jaganmohan Reddy. BJP leaders tend to dispute this assessment, saying the race is still very close.
It was in August last year that Narendra Modi addressing a rally in Hyderabad, reached out to the Telegu Desam Party (TDP), reminding the party of the agenda of its founder N T Rama Rao – throwing the Congress out of power.And in December, when TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu was seen hobnobbing with top BJP leaders at the swearing-in ceremony MP chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Bhopal, it was thought that the TDP-BJP alliance in Andhra Pradesh was a done deal.
Three-and-a-half months since then, the two parties were trying to see who blinked first and this agreement with hardly a week left for nominations to end for the first of the two-phase polls in the state.Both parties wanted to benefit from each other and expected a repeat of 1999 where the TDP-BJP alliance bagged 36 of the 42 seats in the state. The BJP alone got an unprecedented seven seats. It didn’t get a single seat in the last two Lok Sabha elections.
One of the reasons behind such a hard ball attitude was that the dynamics of AP politics shifted greatly after the Telangana bill was passed in Parliament in February.The Telangana BJP leaders, prominently its president, Kishan Reddy, and some RSS functionaries opposed the alliance as the TDP is seen as a Seemandhra party. They insisted before the central party leaders that the 2014 polls taking place after the division of the state, which the BJP supported, would be a good opportunity for them to gain ground in Telangana.
Another factor was the cast matrix and the caste disconnect between the TDP that is dominated by the Kammas and the BJP that is dominated by the Reddys. And some BJP leaders, including those of Seemandhra, cite the 1999-2004 NDA period, pointing to Naidu’s dominance, which they say did not allow the party’s growth then. They even grudged that Naidu deals directly with the national leaders, not keeping them in the loop. Seemandhra BJP, however, was keen on the TDP alliance.
This alliance is going to create a headache for the Telangana Rastra samithi(TRS) which has been in the throes of problems and desertions.
Of senior party leader and Peddapalli Lok Sabha member Gaddam Vivekananda and his brother Vinod in retaliation for the TRS poaching Akula rajinder, it’s sitting Malkajgiri MLA. Earlier, the TRS had poached Congress leaders including Thatikonda Rajaiah (MLA Station Ghanpur) and Somarapu Satyanarayana (Ramagundam).
Political observers based in Hyderabad say that with this alliance both N Chandrababu Naidu and his Telugu Desam Party are expected to make sudden, big gains in Andhra Pradesh. According to them, while the Telangana Rashtra Samiti has expectedly gained in popularity in Telangana, it is the TDP that has made the biggest gains in Seemandhra.
Jaganmohan Reddy’s YSR Congress was until recently considered the kingmaker from Andhra Pradesh and expected to emerge from the imbroglio over statehood for Telangana as the biggest gainer in Andhra politics. While the YSR Congress was anyway expected to have little to no traction in Telangana, there was rapidly declining level of faith in Jagan.
Not only has Jagan not nursed the party at all in Telangana, in Seemandhra too, his fortunes are dipping slightly, with him unable to allay fears that he might end up merging his party with the Congress after the elections. And besides, his wavering stand on Narendra Modi who he recently lauded as a “modern day politician” has not gone down well with traditional supporters of his late father.
While Jagan insists on any available forum that TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu is his biggest rival, there are the factors against him. One is that Jagan carries the stigma of having been jailed on the charges of graft. This isn’t easy to get over, however much he and his bandwagon try to project it as the result of an effort by his rivals who are frightened of his popularity.
Secondly, None of his father YS Rajasekhara Reddy’s close aides, including his ‘Man Friday’ K V P Ramachandra Rao and ‘shadow’ Suryudu, are sailing with Jagan. On the other hand, Rajasekhara Reddy’s chums and disciples like APCC president N Raghuveera Reddy are now spewing venom at their guru’s son. Ironically, Jagan never seemed to have made an attempt to reach out to them to persuade them to stand by him. At least, none in the political circles ascribe humility and persuasive skill to Jagan Reddy. On the other hand, YSR’s arch rivals in politics like M V Mysoora Reddy are in his present coterie.
Third, Jagan is comparatively younger and this is making senior leaders edgy, for they cannot take a snub or two from him. Aside from this, most of the party’s elders try to arrogate seniority to themselves, despite the fact that Jagan is the president of their party, and slip into pedagogy at the drop of the hat. Jagan lacks the dexterity to cajole and tame such leaders. Instead, he chooses to let them go and that creates more chinks in his poll armour.
In addition, Andhra Pradesh election has been fought by political parties on the basis of local media support and a large section of media in Andhra Pradesh is against Jagan due to myriad reasons. On the other hand, the media houses patronize the Telugu Desam Party and its helmsman Chandrababu Naidu. The degree varies thanks to Naidu’s media-friendly approach. This generated a lot of goodwill for Naidu among all sections of people, especially those who depend on the news media. As if to add insult to injury, neither Jagan nor his family members grant interviews to any of the print or electronic media organisations headquartered in Hyderabad. Like Jagan, most senior leaders of his party too are inaccessible to media. They face the charge that they neither answer nor return the calls made by even persons from media organisations that don’t intentionally nurse any grievance against Jagan.
In a complete contrast, leaders of the Telugu Desam Party and the Congress are proactive in keeping in touch with media persons and media owners – be it newspapers or TV channels or even new media.
Further, Jagan’s party doesn’t seem to be imparting any training or doing any background exercise to groom its spokespersons to present his party’s standpoint on criticism of YSR and Jagan or policy issues during TV talk shows, which have a lot of viewership. While those representing the TDP are thorough with the subjects they are handling or are dexterous at bulldozing through using lung power, YSRC leaders are often caught off-guard and fail to counter the high-octane criticism.
Strangely enough, for reasons best known to him, Jagan also appears to be convinced that that any political party can exist only in one region of the about-to-be bifurcated Andhra Pradesh. It is for this reason that he has apparently deliberately ignored nursing the party in Telangana, though the late YSR still enjoys considerable popularity among the masses in this region. Thus, he has alienated himself in the region, taking a strong anti-Telangana stand unlike other parties which played to the gallery.
Jagan is also accused of being autocratic, failing to encourage the growth of a second rung of leadership and also at the grassroots level which is vital for any political party. Also, he hasn’t been able to allay fears that he might end up doing another Chiranjeevi and merge his party with the Congress after the elections.
His wavering stand on Narendra Modi in the garb of being a “modern day politician” and in asserting that Modi is not an “untouchable” have made Muslim vote bank eye him suspiciously.
Furthermore, the exodus of leaders from the Congress into the Telugu Desam is amplifying the buzz that TDP’s stock in the public eye is soaring. Jagan doesn’t seem to have attempted to negotiate with any leader who left the party so far, leaving them high and dry. The admirers of YSR Reddy accuse his son of lacking connect with the people and the political acumen to hold his flock together unlike his father.
Actor Pawan Kalyan, who has been taking potshots at Jagan only through oblique references of imprisonment on charges of corruption and subsequent release on bail without taking his name, is the new thorn in the flesh for Jagan’s party. The actor, who is a rage among the younger generation, openly pledged support to Narendra Modi and desired that he became the Prime Minister. That means, Jagan has yet another potential rival to checkmate for.
Under these circumstances, the BJP- TDP alliance in Andhra Pradesh could emerge as a winning combination both in State assembly as well as Lok Sabha elections. Even winning 3 to 4 Lok Sabha seats from Telanagana region would be a significant contribution to the BJP kitty in its quest for the magic figure of 272 Plus. (To be continued)
(Posted on April 4, 2014 @ 11.15pm)
(Ajay N Jha is a veteran journalist from both Print and Electronic media. He is Advisor to Prasar Bharti. The views expressed are his personal. His email id is Ajay N Jha <ajayjha30@gmail.com> )
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