Congress Party’s Shrinking alliance base

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Ajay N Jha

ENARADA, New Delhi

By Ajay N Jha

Congress President Mrs Sonia Gandhi’s address yesterday at Congress Parliamentary party (CPP) is a clear indication that her hand  has already reached the panic button but She would not yet like to press that. In a candid confession,she said that “It is obvious that we have not been able to convince the people of our policies, programmes and achievements. We have not, it seems, been able to fulfill their aspirations.”

She was equally forthright in saying that lack of discipline and unity were among the reasons for the party’s debacle in Assembly polls and asked the cadre not to despair and be ready for the “battle ahead” in 2014 general elections.

“We should not lose heart. There is another battle ahead of us, in May 2014 for which we must ready ourselves. The Congress party has won and lost many elections. In victory or defeat, we must remember that it is our solemn duty to serve people to the best of our ability,” she said.

She also gave a clear hint that the party would also like to ruminate over various factors which have come in the way of galvanizing voters anywhere in the country and even grassroots party workers lack of  enthusiasm in the  name of the Gandhis. A section of Congress leaders have also started saying in private conversation  that their biggest concern now is that the Gandhis have stopped being vote-catchers for the party and that was clearly visible in the disastrous results of the latest round of Assembly polls in delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh.

Under these circumstances, declaring  Rahul Gandhi as the Congress party’s Prime ministerial candidate challenge BJP’s  Narendra Modi in 2014 Lok Sabha polls would be clearly out of sync with reality.

As a senior Congress MP from Andhra Pradesh said ”the present coterie culture has already destroyed Congress party’s organisational architecture at all levels over last few years. The self-serving and self-perpetuating middle level leadership has entrenched itself so deep that nothing else than a purge would help clean the Augean stables  and the efforts Rahul to remedy the situation by bringing in elections to the organization has not started delivering the results yet.”

Another Congress leader was more forthright in saying that “Rahul Gandhi may have all good attentions and even a big pedigree. But he has a go a long way if he really wants to confront Modi and lead the party to a respectable stage”

Obviously, the party cannot ignore the external challenges – a hugely unpopular central government thanks to charges of big ticket corruption, poor governance, inability to rein in prices and general apathy towards the economy. Modi with his loud and aggressive attack on the Congress and calculated approach to woo micro-constituencies has already got a massive early lead in the race to 2014.

A section of congressmen still feel that it would be inopportune moment for a party to expose Rahul Gandhi at this juncture as its trump card in the face of so many odds piled up together. The majority however, is  keen on making the Congress vice-president its prime minister candidate despite understanding the pitfalls associated with the decision .

Their argument is that Rahul Gandhi can now be credited with the passage of Lokpal Bill, land Acquisition Bill and a few more things and that would stand in direct comparison with Modi. The Gujarat Chief Minister,with due apology to his diehard supporters, is no development and growth miracle man he is being projected to be. His ideas on economy – though we have his intellectual followers calling him the greatest thinker in economics of our times – are as jaded or as fresh as the ideas of other chief ministers of the country. He talks about problems but appears to be clueless on solutions. But despite all this, he stands a head and shoulder above Rahul Gandhi. Modi at least has some view on the economy and it has many takers in the corporate.

On the other hand, Rahul Gandhi  has not made any spectacular impact. In all his recent election campaign speeches he spoke about the aam aadmi and the steps taken by the UPA for their upliftment, but was miserable in getting his point across. While all governments, particularly the BJP-led ones, have been as populist as the Congress at the Centre what with several welfare schemes, it’s the latter that is being planned for trying to buy votes through schemes.

In the opinion of a few experts, Rahul Gandhi and his team should have been ready with a blueprint about his vision of India in the coming days. He was made the Vice- President of the party in  January this year and 11 months time was good enough for his team of advisors to  draft out his vision and his mission.

Modi has made a lot of noise on his inclusive development model. But neither Rahul nor the UPA has come out with a coherent view on an inclusive economy yet. The election results show that not only the businesses but even the masses are not impressed with what he has to say. It may be so  because his team of advisors have not yet been able to understand the ground reality of politics at the grass root level and they are still torn between copying the American quick fix for the Indian maladies.

Moreover, his advisors like Madhusudan Mistry and Jairam Ramesh have been giving him those kind of prescriptions which are not in sync with the present reality. While Mistry’s diagnosis of the party’s shrinking base in various States has been bizarre, the remark of Jairam Ramesh that “Modi on lokpal is like Asaram talking on virginity ”has only made the status of  Rahul Gandhi advisory team more frivolous.

Yet another point of debate is on the experience of taking responsibility. So far, Rahul Gandhi  has avoided any responsibility of a Ministry, while Modi has a proven track record of governing a state well. “ How can the Congress expect voters to accept Rahul for the top job easily? Surely, it has not stopped taking people for granted, or it has no other option left. If it has to survive, it has to sink or swim with him. This was the predicament with the BJP sometime ago and they found their solution in Modi” wrote a veteran commentator a few days ago.

The Congress party think-tank, on the other hand, appears to be convinced that it is a case of better late than never and that is how they want to plunge Rahul Gandhi on the basis  of the good work done by the UPA II government in many areas which have not been given due publicity. They also argue that the defeat of the Congress party in all the four States was not because Modi factor as BJP has been trying to make out.

In Chhattisgarh, for example,the BJP poll managers had  arranged a total of 12 meeting of Narendra modi as a part of what it called ‘carpet Bombing strategy’ and they had hoped that Modi’s  magic and his presence would not only ensure those seats but it would also have the cascading impact in neighboring areas. Results from Chhattishgarh clearly established that BJP candidates lost at all those places where Modi’s rally had been organized including kanker, Korba, Gurg city, Bilha, Mahasamund and Raipur rural assembly  segments.

In Bastar region also, Modi had addressed two rallies and the BJP ended up losing 7 seats out of 12. In last elections, BJP had won 11 out of 12 seats from this region. Even in Sarguja region, Modi had addressed a big rally at Ambikapur but BJP could manage to win only one seat out of the total of 8 seats in undivided Sarguja district.

In the same way, Modi factor did not work magic for BJP in Delhi. If that was the case, then the BJP would have been in a position to sweep  Delhi polls and  formed the government. It got stuck at 32 seats and all anti- congress votes went into the kitty of AAP. Modi may have been a catalyst in some states but not a  factor big enough to swing the verdict in his own name.

That however, has not lessened the problem of Congress party in any way and more so because its allies have also started deserting it one by one. While  Trinamul Congress had already party company  earlier, now it is the DMK which has kicked the bucket.

The DMK patriarch M karunanidhi’s decision to turn away from the Congress party in LOk Sabha polls 2014. Addressing the general council meeting at the party headquarters Anna Arivalayam in Chennai on 15th December, Mr. Karunanidhi said, “The party had enough. It would not align with the Congress in the future.” But, he also added: “DMK’s alliance with the BJP was over with Atal Bihari Vajpayee”

The DMK’s decision to dump its Congress alliance in the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls is one more piece of evidence that power – or even the prospect of power – is the key to alliances. While this does not mean M Karunanidhi is about to seek an entry into the NDA under Narendra Modi, the smell of defeat that hangs around the Congress party is driving away allies, giving the BJP hope for 2014. That means,for the first time in decades, Tamil Nadu is likely to witness a solo performance during the next Lok Sabha elections by all major political parties in the state.

With DMK’s withdrawal of support to the UPA<http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/UPA>today, history could turn full circle 15 years after Congress pulled down the United Front coalition demanding withdrawal of DMK<http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/DMK>ministers from the government.In November 1997, the coalition government of Prime Minister I K Gujral came tumbling down after seven months in office in the wake of the report of the Jain Commission that went into the assassination of former Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi.

Gujral’s government collapsed and he resigned when Congress finally carried out a threat to withdraw its support because the Jain Commission report held the DMK, a key coalition partner, of coddling a Sri Lankan guerrilla group suspected of killing Gandhi in a suicide bombing.The government fell after leaders of the 13-party United Front coalition rejected Congress’ demand to oust the accused partner, the DMK, and its three representatives in Gujral’s cabinet.

DMK and Congress have been sharing power at the Centre since May 2004 and the ruling party at the Centre was also part of the alliance in Tamil Nadu<http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/Tamil%20Nadu>whenKarunandhi was the chief minister.DMK, the second biggest constituent in UPA,  had quit the ruling alliance and pulled out its five Union ministers in protest against government not taking up its concerns in the proposed UN resolution<http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/topic/resolution>against Sri Lanka on alleged human rights violations of Tamils there.

The wily old fox of Indian politics, Karunanidhi knows that the Congress is facing an uphill task in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. He is also expecting that Narendra Modi-led BJP wave will hit the Congress hard. So, he wants to keep all his options open till the last minute. On the other hand AIADMK chief and chief minister J Jayalalithaa is also not ready to align with anybody. She has already made it clear that her party won’t have any alliance with the BJP ahead of polls.

While Narendra Modi made some serious efforts to woo Jayalalithaa but his efforts failed. Like her arch rival Karunanidhi, she too wants to keep all her options open. Her supporters believe that, in case of a Third Front government ‘Amma’ can become the prime minister. Even former prime minister HD Deve Gowda has backed her candidature recently.

Under these circumstances, the Congress may  finally align with actor Vijaykanth-led DMDK. Other smaller parties like MDMK, VCK, PMK, DK and the Communist parties in the state are also facing a dilemma and at the end,they will have to go with either DMK or AIADMK to maintain their relevance in the state politics.

The third option before the  Congress would be  to lead a grand alliance of smaller parties. That too would be easier said than done. Under the present circumstances, Tamil Nadu  may see nearly a dozen political parties fighting with each other for the 39 Lok Sabha seats in the state. Top Congress leader and Union finance minister P Chidambaram who is sitting MP from Shivaganga may find it difficult to take on both AIADMK and DMK at the same time. The BJP which has a negligible presence will also find it difficult to keep its relevance in the state, if it’s forced go solo.  For the Congress party, however it would be extremely difficult to win even 3 seats in Tamil Nadu on its own.

On the other hand, NCP led by   Marath Chieftan Sharad Pawar has also started giving pin-pricks to the Congress. Not only the Congress- NCP alliance in Maharashtra is  tottering, Pawar Statement on Rahul Gandhi’s capability as well as his Jholawala brigade of advisors has seen many eye-brows raised in the Congress camp. According to a senior Congress leader, “ Sharad Pawar is like a cat on the wall and his support canot betaken for granted now”.

The only other party that has put the Congress in a catch 22 situation in Bihar is Lalu Prasad’s RJD. While Rahul Gandhi has always advocated the idea of” going alone’ in Bihar, the RJD supremo has been voluntarily pledging his party support to Congress on the ground that this was the best option for the party. This has created a rift within the party itself since a few senior Congress leaders still want RJD to remain in UPA.

The BJP,on the other hand, seems to be in a better position now. While it has the support of SAD and Shiv Sena, BJP leaders are seemingly pleased at a few other regional  shuffling away from the Congress. Others are looking furtively left and right to see how they can cosy up to the BJP before the next election – their only anxiety being calculations on whether they will lose the Muslim vote in pursuit of the additional votes a BJP alliance can fetch.

In Andhra Pradesh, both Chandrababu Naidu and YS Jagan Mohan Reddy are not averse to a BJP tie-ppwhether it is  covert or overt. What they are looking for is a fig leaf of secularism.

In Karnataka, BS Yeddyurappa is already game, but one can’t rule out Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal (S) also getting into a wink-and-a-nod alliance – as it did in a recent Lok Sabha bypoll which it lost.

In Tamil Nadu, J Jayalalithaa has always been considered a willing alliance partner for Modi, and the smaller parties – PMK, MDMK, etc – are waiting for cues from the bigger two parties to jump onto the bandwagon. They have the luxury of deciding after May 2014.

In Assam, the AGP will probably team up with BJP, and post-poll one can’t rule out Mamata Banerjee and Naveen Patnaik working out an arrangement for outside support if the Modi-led BJP crosses the 200-mark. A tie-up with Babulal Marandi in Jharkhand is a distinct possibility, too.

In Haryana, the BJP is already in an alliance with Kuldeep Bishnoi, and an expansion of the alliance to include INLD cannot be ruled out.

The biggest take away from the recent assembly polls is that it is power that unites, and loss of power that separates. There is now ample evidence that Muslims in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan started shifting towards parties that looked like winning rather than sticking to the Congress.

In Delhi, the Aam Aadmi Party harvested its first large chunk of the Muslim vote, and in Rajasthan and MP, the BJP got a good share of Muslim votes. Muslims are getting rid of their fears that if they abandon Congress, they are going to be losers.

A case in the point is Modi’s response when bombs went off in the middle of Modi’s oration at the Gandhi maidan. He could have become provocative under pressure. Instead, he delivered his best lines. Impoverished Hindus, he said, had a choice — they could either fight poverty or they could fight Muslims. And impoverished Muslims could fight Hindus, or they could fight poverty.

In fact, if Modi gives a clear signal that he is prepared to address Muslim fears about the BJP, one cannot rule out a tectonic shift in Indian politics in 2014. For the BJP to win, Muslims merely have to stop voting Congress, even if they won’t vote for BJP. Power has a way of changing perceptions and it is here that the Congress party seems to be at a distinct disadvantage.

(Posted on December 19, 2013 @ 6.30pm)

(Ajay N Jha is a veteran journalist from both Print and Electronic media.  He is Advisor to Prasar Bharti. The views expressed are his personal. His email id is Ajay N Jha <ajayjha30@gmail.com> )

The views expressed on the website are those of the Columnists/ Authors/Journalists / Correspondents and do not necessarily reflect the views of ENARADA.

 

2 COMMENTS

  1. oh good introspection indeed. Every congressmen interested in the welfare of the nation should join hands with Soniaji.

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