Mere Constitutional formality and no political benefit ?

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enarada

ENARADA, Bangalore

By Mathihalli Madan Mohan

Except for meeting constitutional formality, there is hardly any significance, political or otherwise in the two by-elections to loksabha from Mandya and Bangalore Rural parliamentary constituencies, scheduled to take place on August 21st.

For, the present loksabha has only few months in office and the outcome of the bye elections will have hardly any bearing on the political situation, either at the State or Centre. For the winning candidates, their term would end even before they can realize what it means. The outcome will have only academic interest in the sense whether the popular mood in favour of the Congress as expressed in the just concluded assembly elections would continue or not.

The bye election, it may be mentioned here has been occasioned by resignation of two MPs Mr. Ambarish (Congress) and Mr. Kumarasway (JDS) following their victory in the assembly election. Mr. Ambarish is a minister in the Siddaramaiah ministry while Mr. Kumaraswamy has been the Leader of the Opposition in the Karnataka Legislative Assembly. Since three MLCs have also been returned in the assembly   bye election is being held too, which again would hardly evoke any political interest.

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Incidentally, the votes cast in the loksabha poll represent the political base of the respective constituency, unclouded as it is from the local issues which influence the assembly elections. In a way the loksabha polls is the foundation on which super structure is built by the political parties in the assembly elections.  Those who would not have voted for the national parties in the assembly elections would start looking towards the political parties in a parliament poll. And it is because of this that one could discern variation in the peoples political choice in the two polls when held separately and not when simultaneous polls are held.  And invariably the turnout is also on the lower side because the campaigning in loksabha polls is less intensive.

Since 1977, there have been only two occasions namely 1989 and 2004, when the simultaneous polls have been held in Karnataka.   2009 parliament elections took place one year after the general elections to the assembly were held.  Since the new assembly elections have already been held this year the loksabha polls take place early next year.

(Assembly election figures are arranged  under the respective parliamentary segments)

The present bye elections to the two parliamentary constituencies of Mandya and Bangalore Rural have come as an additionality to gauge the people’s mood.  They are taking place in the short interregnum between the assembly and parliament poll, which has not happened in the past to emerge as barometers to test the people’s mood.  It would be interesting find whether the proCongress swing and the  anti BJP mood still continues to set the stage for the forthcoming electoral battle, for the throne in Newdelhi, for which the   two combinations led by the Congress and BJP would be vying and  also the third front comprising of the Non BJP and Non Congress parties.

The two bye elections in Mandya and Bangalore have essentially turns out to be tussle for supremacy between the Congress and JDS, with the BJP playing a marginal role. The domination of the two parties is complete in Mandya, while the loss of base by the BJP due to its own hara-kiri, has weakened its base in Bangalore Rural.  The BJP has been reportedly trying to take advantage of the given situation, by offering to support the JDS in return for the latter’s support for the bye elections for three seats of the Legislative Council, who are also scheduled to take place.

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Both Mandya and Bangalore Rural (which was earlier known as Kanakapura) have been basically Congress strong holds with the party bagging the seats in seven out of the ten outings held since 1977. Mr. Ambarish  the well-known Kannada film star has been chalk out a record four consecutive victories in a row since 1998,  the first one under the banner of JD and the three subsequent wins under the banner of Congress . In Bangalore Rural, of the three wins that the Non Congress candidates chalked, out in this constituency Kumaraswamy has won twice under the Janata Dal ticket in 1996 and as a JDS candidate in 2009.

In Mandya parliamentary constituency, it has essentially been a fight between the Congress and the JDS and the BJP is too weak to offer any tangible fight.  In the 2008 assembly elections, the BJP drew a blank despite a swing all over the state in its favour. The  JDS won six of the eight assembly seats  namely, Malavalli, Maddur , Melkote, Mandya , Shrirangapatna,  and K R Nagara, and the remaining  two seats namely, Nagamangala and  K R Nagara went  to Congress,  The JDS had notched up a total tally  of 4.36 lakh voters as against  3.02 lakhs of Congress and 1.48 lakh votes of BJP.

The parliament elections came a year later in 2009. The JDS, could retain the hold in two segments of Melkote, Nagamangal, and also in  K R Pet, which was not with it in the previous election. Consequently its total tally of votes between the two elections had declined from 4.36 lakhs to 3.39 lakhs, showing a drop of nearly 97,000 votes. Congress on the hand had led in five assembly segments namely, Malavalli, Maddur, Mandya, Shrirangapatna and K R Nagara, garnering. additional 58,000 votes over its 2008 tally of 3.02 lakhs. BJP continued to be poor third lagging far behind these two parties.

However in the 2013 assembly election, both JDS and Congress experienced bonanza of the voters support. And the BJP, hit by the split in the party and adverse public mood, was humiliated to end with only   five digit figure of less than 16,000 votes in all the eight assembly constituencies. .  JDS which won Maddur, Shrigangapatna Nagamangala and K R Nagar, had amassed a whopping 4.85 lakhs and  Congress,  with three wins in Malavalli, Mandya and K R Pet, had secured  4.13 lakh votes to concede 72,000 lead to its traditional rival.  Melkote seat was captured by Sarvoday Karnataka Paksha nominee and front ranking farmers leader, Mr. Puttannaiah.

In  Bangalore Rural parliamentary constituency,  comprising of the eight assembly segments of  Kunigal, Rajarajeshwarinagar, Bangalore South, Anekal (SC), Magadi, Ramanagaram, Kanakapur, and Channapatna,  all the three major parties, found themselves  equally poised in  the  2008 assembly elections as for as the vote share is concerned., but the BJP had won four seats as against  3 of Congress and the JDS being satisfied with a solitary seat, notwithstanding its position as the party with a highest vote share.

The JDS led with 3.94 lakhs  votes  for the lone Ramanagaram seat it could win, followed by Congress with 3.48 lakhs ( winning Kunigal,  Kananakpur and Channapatna)  and BJP raking  3.10 lakhs (winning four seats of  Rajarajeshwari Nagar, Bangalore South, Anekal, and Magadi)

The parliament election which came a year later had brought a bumper of one lakh additional votes to the JDS, and the party led in six of the eight assembly segments of Kunigal, Rajarajeshwarinagar,Magadi, Ramanagaram, Kanakapur and Channapatna). The BJP stood second with a lead in  Bangalore South and Anekal segments and  improved its previous vote base with an  additional 52,000 votes.  However Congress had slipped up badly. It was unable to lead in any of the segments and in the process had the mortification of losing nearly half of the electoral support and ended up with a poor third with  a total of  only  1.92 lakh votes.

There was a dramatic turn around  for  Congress in 2013  assembly elections.  It could win Rajarajeshwarinagar, Anekal (SC), Magadi, and Kanakapur seats and raked a record five lakh votes.  It was  1.51 lakh more than its 2008 tally, and two and half times more than the support it had received in the 2009 loksabha poll. JDS polled 4.76 lakhs  chalking out wins in Kunigal and Ramanagaram,  BJP etched a solitary win in Bangalore  and it ended up with  votes tally of  2.59 lakhs,  which was 1.03 lakhs  less than 2009 poll and 51,000  less than what it had received five years ago in 2008.  Karnataka Sarvodaya Paksha wrested the Channapatna seat by a margin of around 7,000 votes from JDS.

It would be interesting under circumstance watch the mood of the electorate in these essentially non serious bye elections , which does not absolutely provide any political  benefits either to  the contestants or the parties concerned.

(Posted on July 31, 2013 @ 12.30pm)

(Author is a Senior Journalist and Columnist.  Mobile: +91 94480 74872     Email : madan.mm@gmail.com)

The views expressed on the website are those of the Columnists/ Authors/Journalists / Correspondents and do not necessarily reflect the views of ENARADA.

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