ENARADA, New Delhi
By Ajay N Jha
The official anointment of Narendra Modi as the BJP’s prime ministerial candidate by party President Rajnath Singh sets the stage for Elections 2014 and its impact has already started showing in some measure or the other. Not only Modi was read, heard and seen by over 1 crore people on Google during last 24 hours, loads of sweets were distributed in his name even from those corners of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar which hardly knew him. The same was the case even in some pockets of Andhra pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
The inference is very clear and that is BJP has started riding a tiger in the name of Modi and it would closely watched by friends and foes alike. The RSS has taken the biggest plunge into the 2014 LS polls arena by making Modi as its mascot and its future trajectory would be crystal clear within another 2/3 months.
In the process however, the BJP and Sangh have overcome a determined bid by LK Advani to queer the pitch. It is a pity that the patriarch chose to ‘inject communalism in the political broth of India way back in 1990s’ and was tom-tommed as the ‘Iron man’ made himself irrelevant and innocuous and chose to play a ‘sourpuss rather than a cheerleader’. At the end, the “eternal charioteer” turned himself into a “Sundry Charlton” and lost his relevance and respect altogether.
The BJP has now crossed the Rubicon and Rajnath Singh did prove that this was his bet forward. Advani’s antics even in the coming days is not likely to hold BJP back , for it is clear that he was trying to delay the inevitable by pretending he was only opposed to the announcement till the state assembly elections.
It could have made some sense because the Advani group really wanted to see Modi pass the first test in State Assembly elections in October- November (Rajasthan, Madhya pradesh, Delhi and Chhattishgarh) and could still fancy for him more like a snowball’s chance in hell. It was more so because the BJP had lost miserably both in Himachal pradesh and Karnataka assembly elections despite Modi’s high-pitch and hi-tech campaign.
In other words, Adavni was hinting that Modi would again be a liability in the forthcoming state elections. If that is the case, then the BJP would be equally wrong in naming him as PM candidate even after the assembly election. The more likely possibility is that Advani used this argument to give Shivraj Singh Chouhan a chance to win in Madhya Pradesh and then use the latter’s victory to stop Modi. If this interpretation is right, it shows Advani as a diabolical politician rather than an elder statesman with the BJP’s best interests at heart.
Now the hype, hoopla and euphoria have been created across the country and couple of agencies has already reported that there was a 6.7 percent increase in the popularity of Modi over night. But maintaining that tempo would be a herculean task for the saffron brigade in the run up to 2014 LS polls.
Reality Check of BJP and Congress party:
1) BJP: According to BJP and Sangh parivar, the only way the BJP can win the next election is by giving Modi enough time to evolve the party’s strategy state by state. This he could not have done without formally being declared the party’s mascot with the power to frame the poll agenda and nuance its stand for every important state. Modi has a stiff task ahead for the simple reason that the party he inherits wasted more than nine years in opposition without building its base. It had no policy beyond parliamentary disruption. It had no strategy beyond private agendas. And it had no leadership worth the name, Advani included. The so-called national leadership had no mass base.
This is why despite the complete economic mess the Congress has created, and the humongous corruption scandals emerging from the woodwork with metronomic regularity, the BJP still lags in terms of popular perceptions. It is Modi’s task to revive the party’s fortunes in nine months by energizing the base and expanding it – something the rest of the leadership could not do in nine years.
Congress: The Congress party had already completed 9 years in power in a row and even its best sympathizers believe that UPA II has been disastrous for the party in many ways. Dr Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister failed in public eye on many fronts and the continuing price rise, scams and corruption continue to haunt the general public.
But then, the Congress party does not believe in naming the leader before elections. There has been a lot of talk about Rahul Gandhi being made the natural heir to Dr Singh but Rahul himself has not given any indication that he was ready to take on the mantle.
Even otherwise, the Gandhis are the biggest leaders and crowd-pullers for the Congress party and there are chances that Mrs Sonia Gandhi’s pet subjects like Food Security Bill and Land Acquisition Bill would form the core of congress campaign in 2014. The Congress leaders would have to once again, fall back on the Charisma of Gandhis.
2) BJP: Electing the right leader is a job half done. It gives the party an authoritative voice in the coming months. It also gives the BJP a modern leader who vibes well with an aspirational India. That way, BJP has taken a plunge in making Modi their mascot.
Congress: This would make the task rather easier for the Congress party because Modi’s hand has been soiled in Gujarat post-Godhara riots and polarization of votes on the community lines would be to Congress party’s advantage now. Muzaffarnagar riots would cost Samajwadi party dearly and it would turn Muslim voters back towards the Congress.
3) BJP: Elections are won not only on speeches, which Modi is anyway capable of delivering to perfection, but state-level micro-strategies play an equally important role in that It is often said that India’s national elections are really a bunch of regional elections. If this is true, an early announcement gives Modi and his team enough time to stitch alliances and work out strategies for each critical state. But that would be easier said than done.
Congress : The Congress party seems to be in a better state on this point because barring the exception of TMC, the UPA had more or less kept its alliance intact in the shape of DMK, NCP, RJD, JKNC and a few smaller regional outfits. The UPA Government has also been able to secure the support of both SP and BSP on key issues. The Congress managers have been more effective in coordinating their strategies along with their allies as compared to Modi who is known for his hardline and arrogance and that would come to play a very important role post 2014 LS polls once again.
4) BJP: It is widely believed that this election will be won or lost in Uttar Pradesh, which has 80 seats. Only Modi has the stature to claw back UP from the SP and BSP. BJP lost in 2004 not only because two important allies – Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh and J Jayalalithaa in Tamil Nadu – lost, but because the BJP crashed in UP. The party first slipped in 1999 under Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and crashed further in 2004 in UP. If Modi can get the party’s popular vote above 25 percent in this crucial state, he can make a large harvest of 30 seats in UP. Below that, he can’t. But even his enemies concede that only he can make a difference.
Congress: It is here that the Congress finds itself at sea. The Congress party was able to get 22 seats from Uttar Pradesh in 2009 LS polls. But various poll surveys have already started predicting doom and most of them say that the Congress party may find it extremely difficult to even get 10 seats. It is because the Congress leadership did not take adequate steps to ensure that sitting MPs worked in their constituencies. Madhususan Mistry as the new AICC general Secretary in charge is a new entrant and his own arrogant and ostrich like approach has not done any good either. Even on the Muzaffarnagar riots issue, Congress leaders kept sleeping over 9 days instead of making some noise and appealing for peace and calm in the riot affected areas and it was only after constant badgering of Mrs Ambika Soni that they woke up on 9th September to make their presence felt. The biggest problem is the total disconnect between the workers and leaders of the Congress party in the State and no amount of cobbling or stitching is going to make up for the lost ground now.
5) BJP: By nominating Modi, the BJP is not actually doing him a favour. It has given him a very difficult job to do, and if he falters, the party will not forgive him. Since the stakes are high, it made no sense to expect Modi to work for the party without empowering him. It is fundamental to success that power and responsibility must go together. The party has empowered Modi because it wants to ride on his coat-tails to success.
Congress : The biggest challenge before the Congress is to find out one leader who can match Modi statement- by- statement and tit for tat. In that respect, Modi is definitely far ahead. His carefully chooses one liners and no holds barred attack on the Gandhis and the PM and detailed narration of UPA government’s list of failures in a typically theatrical and colloquial style, appears to have caught the fancy and attention of the rural masses as well .
In other words, Modi has been able to establish some kind of connectivity and rapport with the people at large and he hopes that to land him with a big junk of “floating” as well as First time voters’ mandate. Both these segments together would form around 17.29 percent of the total number of voters in 2014 LS polls. If Modi is able to garner even 60 percent of their support, then it would have inflicted a big blow on the Congress party and pushed it at least 50 to 60 seats behind and that would make a huge difference at the end.
6) BJP: Since the next election will be as much about anti-incumbency as governance, a leaderless BJP could not have made much of a difference. None of the opinion polls so far give the NDA, leave alone the BJP, any chance of crossing 200 seats. To take the NDA past the 200 mark, leadership is critical. In all polls, Modi’s personal rating has always been well above that of his party. By announcing his candidature early, the party has given Modi a chance a close the gap.
Congress: It is here that the Congress party seems to have a distinct disadvantage. Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh has not been known for his superlative eloquence and even Congress President Sonia Gandhi still has to read her written speeches in public meetings. Rahul Gandhi has that Charishma but he has rarely tried to harness that charm and to translate them into optimum impact through his witty and forceful public speeches. At times, he has been oscillating between Gautam Budha and Mahatma Gandhi while at others; he ended up embarrassing his own party through his outlandish and innocuous remarks.
In contrast, Priyanka Gandhi has been more eloquent, crisp and powerful in her speeches and often reminded people about her resemblance of mannerism with her grandmother late Indira Gandhi. But She still continues to be reluctant and reticent and She has been allowed only ‘Guest appearance’ on a few occasions. But She has all qualities to take Narendra Modi head on and even demolish him. But then, it would depend on the wisdom of Congress President When to ‘unleash’ her into the poll battle arena in the best interest of the party.
7) BJP: Modi embodies both the essential Hindutva image that is vital to the BJP base, even while transcending it. His claim of being a ‘Hindu nationalist’ may cut some ice and that is why RSS has been backing him to the hilt.
Congress: The Congress party may turn that into its advantage and it is precise where the BJP appears to have erred not heeding Advani advice. The fact is that the people of India have almost forgotten the Babri Masjid debacle of 6 December 1992 and their lives have moved much ahead. They would not like to see the clock of communalism turning back at this juncture and that is why they would, in all probability, reject the Modi agenda.
8)BJP: The country’s urban middle class is looking for a strong leader, after seeing the damage done by a “weak” Manmohan Singh. Modi looks more like a Messiah here than anyone else. His rhetoric, style of speech and campaign and his Media machine is already in “war ready mode”
Congress : The Congress party would find it rather tough to defend. The UPA government’s second phase of “ Bharat Nirman” campaign is less appealing and content, the overall poll-preparation of the Congress party is still rough through labour. Its Spokespersons are still given ‘refresher course’ at 15 GRG.
(Posted on September 16, 2013 @ 11.40am)
(Ajay N Jha is a veteran journalist from both Print and Electronic media. He is the President and CEO of WICS Global Communications. His email id is Ajay N Jha <ajayjha30@gmail.com> )
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