Immediately after the name of Narendra Modi was announced at Goa BJP National Executive as the Chairman of BJP campaign committee for 2014 polls, a senior BJP delegate from Ahmedabad quipped “Mark my words. This Ghanchy (Teli) from Vadnagar is going to finish many BJP leaders and create a huge rift within NDA. His personal ambition would come in the way of NDA coming to power in 2014”
On the surface, it looked as the outpouring of an elderly party worker who may have suffered at the hands of Modi in some way or the other. A critical analysis of Modi’s stance, behavior and moves during the last few months, however, presents a totally different kind of picture and testify the apprehension of Jairman Ramesh that “Modi would prove to be the Bhasmasur for BJP”.
The RSS, on the other hand, perhaps thinks otherwise and it has to reconcile itself on the Choice of Modi as the campaign Mascot despite the fact that Modi treated the Sangh with disdain and even closed down Gujarat Kisan Morcha. Modi also thumped hi way into forcing his bete noire Sanjay Joshi out of the party meet in Mumbai last year.
First, the Sangh parivar feels that Modi not only has an enviable track record that speaks for itself but is also a fine orator who can move the people, especially the youth. Modi, as a chief minister for four terms, is sharp and an able electoral strategist, having successfully led the party’s campaigns in Gujarat and fought numerous elections on his own.
Second, the RSS-BJP strategists seem to be convinced that Modi’s polarizing personality will win them far more voters and converts in comparison to those who despise him and would cast an anti-BJP vote.
Third, Modi’s supporters in Sangh parivar also believe that the impact of current turmoil and its impact on the public will only be temporary and in about a month the entire Advani episode would be forgotten. They believe that “Modimania “or ‘Namonia’, will grip the nation and Modi would bring the UPA II government and the Congress party on its knees by his fantastic rhetoric and a barrage of attacks on various scams, non-performance and on various other issues. They are almost convinced that Modi vitriol on issues touching a common man like price rise and government mismanagement on many issues would send Congress party scurrying for cover and help in creating nationwide anti- Congress wave..
However, a section of BJP leaders also fear that Modi presents a dilemma for a large number of people. He may be admired and hailed as an icon of good governance in Gujarat but at the same time, he is also despised by sections of the population for his failure to prevent the 2002 riots and apologize for that failure. He is seen as an example of assertive Hindutva and a champion of growth and development but he is also hated for practicing the politics of liquidation and character assassination.
Yet another source of discomfiture among a section of BJP leaders is that while the party may eventually designate him PM-in-waiting, Modi’s personal office in Gandhinagar has already become a parallel power centre and it would end up being even more powerful than the BJP headquarters in Delhi.
Moreover, Pramod Mahajan and Arun Jaitley, the two other leaders who had served as campaign committee heads earlier, had been assigned this job out of Delhi by the leader to pave the way for an eventual party victor on behalf of the BJP, Modi will do it for himself to advance to 7 Race Course Road and in the process, he would go on chopping those who would try to obstruct his path.
In addition, LK Advani now finds himself vilified, criticized and humiliated for being an obstruction to Modi’s rise on the national stage. Yet he has been able to strike a hard bargain with the Sangh and BJP under the given circumstances and he would patiently wait for Modi to falter and then pounce on him. Advani perhaps wanted to show that Modi couldn’t push him aside as he had done with Keshubhai Patel in Gujarat. Advani will go down, but not without setting his own terms of exit and leave the rest for history to judge, no matter how conflicting the opinions may be.
The inference despite the truce having been brought between the two factions by RSS is clear. While Adavni is in no hurry to hurl into his political sunset, he would to inflict considerable damage to Modi’s ambitions from the sidelines and would not allow him to bulldoze himself come what may.
Advani seems to have already been vindicated on Modi elevation that while Modi brings certain advantages to the party in the form of mass support but he also carries the problem of acceptability within the allies, something crucial in the era of coalition politics. His projection as the party’s candidate for the top job could alienate many allies, existing and potential. The end of 17 years old BJP- JD(U) alliance in Bihar is just the beginning of the problem and it may have many other manifestations which could be fatal for the BJP in 2014.
There are many other reasons why Modi would end up being a liability for the BJP in 2014.
First, Modi has successfully proved in Gujarat that he can eliminate dissenting voices and create a new parallel structure, but the national party set up could be a different game. Even if Advani was discounted for now, the fact is that if Shivraj Singh Chouhan leads BJP to a third consecutive victory in Madhya Pradesh, it will not be possible to sideline him, because of Advani’s preference for him. The Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister would remain a close competitor for Modi even then.
Two, Modi may have the capacity to transform this into popular votes for the party. He also has a great ability to swing political discourse and make Congress uncomfortable with his barbs about the Gandhi family as well as the Prime Minister. Modi will inevitably raise the issue of corruption under the UPA during his election campaigning, but what will draw more attention is his presence and personality. However, what will continue to haunt Modi throughout the run-up to the elections is the failure of the Gujarat government in stemming the 2002 Gujarat riots and allegations of his personal complicity in failing to take prompt action.
Three, both RSS and the BJP leadership would like to flaunt Modi as Hindutva poster boy, development messiah also takes a new avatar as an OBC leader, the first potential leader from the numerically dominant community. However, it is a million dollar question if that appeal could work well in regions in traditional BJP strongholds like Bihar. Also, Modi has not been able to do anything in West Bengal, Assam and the North East.
Four, Modi’s litmus test would be in Uttar Pradesh where he has put former Gujarat Minister Amit Shah in Charge of the State and there are also reports that modi may eventually contest from Lucknow, Varanasi and even Amethi. There are also talks of revival of the “Ram Mandir issue and Hindutwa as Modi is likely to visit Ayodhya on 20th June. This would create unsavory kind of situation and the majority of voters would either turn towards SP or BSP at the cost of BJP’s expectations.
Fifth, Modi would himself end up being a ‘minus factor’ for BJP in 2014 Lok Sabha campaign. The dominance of the “Modi factor” over issues of corruption will certainly come in as a relief and the Congress campaign can be expected to focus on secularism and security for the minorities with repeated references to the 2002 Gujarat rioting. The Congress will also project its flagship programmes such as rural employment through the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, 2005, the Aadhar-based cash transfer scheme and the food security bill which the government is eager to pass as legislation or an ordinance to get it going. The Congress’s campaign will thus focus on secularism, security for the minorities and inclusive growth while countering Modi’s attack on corruption under the UPA and poor governance.
Sixth, Modi’s first hurdle would come in October- November this year as the next round of assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Rajasthan, Delhi and possibly Jharkhand would become equally important for BJP . Though a major portion of credit or blame for victory or defeat would go on a Shivraj Singh Chauhan , Raman Singh and Vasundhara Raje, the election results will shape Modi ’s eventual poll pitch.
Seventh, apart from Goa, the BJP lately has lost Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarkhand and Jharkhand. The BJP has to regain its strength in these states, particularly in Karnataka where like UP, the party has been reduced from number one to number three position. It would be a herculean task for Modi to make that turnaround in Karnataka.
Eighth, Modi as the head of BJP campaign henceforth would prove to be a blessing in disguise for the Congress as well as for smaller regional parties. According to one estimate, the Congress could have got 120 plus seats in 2014. But with Modi in this role, the tally of Congress would go up by another 50 to 60 seats. It would strengthen regional parties more in various States and they would ultimately prefer to go along with Congress again in post 2014 poll scenario because of the stability factor.
Under these circumstances, it looks like the promotion of Modi was a hazardous idea whose actual intent and impact could be felt in the coming months. But then, politics is a game of quirk twists and turns and it would be interesting to see how the electoral politics of India would unfold itself in coming days.
(Posted on June 16, 2013 @ 2.15pm)
(Ajay Jha is a Commentator and Independent Writer and Analyst on Politics, security and Economy of South And West Asia. His email id is: Ajay N Jha <ajayjha30@gmail.com>)
