BJP’s Southern conquest

ENARADA, New Delhi

By AJAY N JHA

One of the hardest lessons that the BJP learnt in both 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha polls was its failure to contain both  Mulayam Singh in Uttar Pradesh and YSR Reddy in Andhra. It was the combination of these two persons which came in the way of BJP’s India shining campaign as well.

The BJP is trying to adopt a different strategy for the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. It has been smartly using the public outrage and sentiments against the State governments to further its cause and combining it with remarkable sustenance to garner support from those sections of voters who have been by and large undecided.

At the same time, the statement of RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwant and his veiled warning to the cadre not to chant Namo Namo could also be interpreted as its fear of making Modi larger than life size which could actually backfire.  This was interpreted in various ways/one interpretation was that the Sangh was apparently not happy with the growing Modi wave across the country. The second interpretation was that the RSS Chief’s Statement was a shot in the arm for those BJP leaders who have not been happy with Modi’s phenomenal rise and found themselves on the fringe.

The truth however, seems to be entirely different, The RSS Chief has been known for his lighter comments on a few issues but in this case, it looks quite implausible that  Mohan Bhagwat who chose Modi in place of LK Advani for the post of  BJP’s PM candidate and tried to bring about a few radical changes in the Sangh’s overall outlook and work style, would suddenly turn against the same person whom he had anointed a  last year to lead the  BJP.

It is well known that it was RSS which came forward to give its approval for Modi’s name and Mohan Bhagwat has said in public view on a couple of occasions that no one can stop Modi from becoming the Prime Minister.  Moreover, Dattatreya Hansbole had openly supported Modi’s candidature in the Bangalore “pratinidhi Sabha” of RSS. Even Bhaiyaji Joshi had given a statement on the unhappiness of MM Joshi and LK Advani with regards to tussle on both Gandhinagar and Varanasi Lok Sabha seats which weighed in Modi’s favour.

The fact remains that it is perhaps for the first time since 1977 that the RSS has jumped into the poll management for BJP and to defeat the Congress. Both RSS and The Congress are in front of each other in such a fashion on the issue of Hindu Fundamentalism vs minority appeasement and communalism. The majority of RSS bosses also admit in private that their cadre has now galvanized itself in the name of Modi who was himself a RSS pracharak three decades ago and they feel that only Modi can lead them to a splendid victory in this round of Lok Sabha polls. The Singh cadre did not come out of its fold to actively campaign for the BJP both in 2004 and 2009.  In this round, the RSS has already directed its workers to fan across the country and ensure the maximum participation of the cadre and polling percentage.

Even otherwise, the BJP had done personalized campaign for Vajpayee and Advani in the past even as the BJP top brass took poll related decisions collectively. More or less, the same trend continues even now and there is no big political decision taken by BJP which clearly establishes Modi veto. Perhaps the only exception could be the selection of Amit Shah to look after BJP poll preparations in Uttar Pradesh which may not have been liked by a few senior party leaders.

However, it is the southern part of India which is being given special attention by both RSS and the BJP to stitch up a larger number of seats in its kitty and upstage the Congress as well as regional outfits.  Karnataka was the first State where the BJP had formed the government in 2007 and broken the myth that BJP is not a party with nation-wide appeal and base. It is a different matter that the BJP had to change 3 Chief Ministers in last five years in Karnataka and it lost the last years Assembly polls miserably because of BS Yeddiurappa’s revolt and his Karnataka Janata Party (KJP).

Karnataka was a state that the BJP had managed to wrench out of the Congress’ grasp with BS Yedyurappa leading the charge. However, with Yedyurappa’s exit, allegations of poor governance, factionalism, rampant corruption and the urban mess that Bangalore turned out to be, the BJP was demolished in the state, handing the state over to Congress again in 2013 Assembly polls.

Now, Yeddiyurappa is back into BJP and he has already been given ticket from Shimoga constituency. That is going to give a huge boost to the party in the State. Moreover, BSR Congress leader Sriramulu too has come back to BJP and given party ticket from Bellary.

The BJP had won 19 out of the total of 28 seats from Karnataka in 2009 LS polls. According to political pundits, the BJP would be in a position to retain at least 14 to 15 seats. The Congress party which could manage to win only 6 seats in 2009 polls is likely to increase its tally up to 12 seats. However, there are indications that infighting within the Congress could bring its tally down to 9 seats even.

Andhra Pradesh had traditionally been a stronghold of the Congress till the TDP managed to make a dent in the party’s voter base. Latching on to the TDP, the BJP had increased its presence in the state minimally.

Andhra Pradesh is a different ball game this time. It was basically because of Andhra Pradesh that the Congress party could reach 200 plus mark in 2009 Lok Sabha polls.

What might play a bigger role in galvanising support for Modi in some parts of Andhra Pradesh is the division of voters in the recently-split state. The States has been divided into many local parties as well. Chief Minister Kiran Kumar reddy who opposed the bifurcation of Telangana tooth and nail till the last moment, finally resigned from the Congress party has launched Jai Samakiya Andhra party.

On the other hand, Share microfin managing Directyor Udaiy Kumar has already launched the Indian Christian secular party last month. MIM has been another player in Andhra Pradesh eying constituencies outside Hyderabad and is planning to field candidates in Rayalaseema and Telangana districts with sizeable muslim population.

YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s party is going to be another important player in Andhra politics and it is said that the people of Seemandhra would still vote for him in the name of his father’s pro-poor schemes.

As India’s political history suggests, party switches in such cases is not an unfamiliar phenomenon. The YSR Congress, formed by YSR Reddy’s family after failing to get their desired share of power within the Congress, has already sounded out their support for Modi. Jagan Reddy has said that he appreciate Modi’s developmental agenda though he refused to hint at the possibility of an alliance.

The Congress party appears to be in shambles in Andhra Pradesh and its desperate attempts towards seat sharing with TRS still seems far from cemented.

On the other hand, formal tie-up between BJP and TDP is just a matter of formality. The last time the TDP and BJP joined hands for the general elections, the NDA came to power in 1999. The TDP had won 29 seats and BJP 7, while the Congress was reduced to a mere 5 seats. What works for Modi probably is the the kind of support that is already there for him among the educated middle class and working professionals in southern states and from southern states, working all over India and abroad. With a section of the voters already backing Modi boisterously, it will probably be not too difficult for the BJP to make regional bigwigs see potential in alliances with the BJP.

The BJP has already got a prized catch in Daggubati Puranderashwari, former Union Minister and daughter of NTR and if she gets fielded from Vishakhapattanam, it would lead to a wide open contest  with Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSRCP and the Congress in that coastal city.

TPD too seems to be taking advantage of former Andhra Ministers TG Venkatesh, E Pratap Reddy and G Srinivas Rao. BJP- TDP combine is likely to emerge as a potent force as BJP think tank members feel that TDP would be immensely benefitted from the Modi wave in terms of transfers of assembly voters in its kitty.

For BJP, alliance with TDP would be a shot in the arm as it would give an opportunity to energize its ground in Andhra after Karnataka.  The BJP- TDP combined had won seven seats in 1999 and secured 4 percent votes in assembly segments. While it got only 4 seats in 1998 Lok Sabha polls.

However, one sore point between TDP and BJP has been the latter’s support to Telangana bill in the Parliament. According to some political observers, this may prove to be counterproductive in some areas and that is why Chandrababu Naidu was a bit wary initially.

Tamil Nadu too is presenting a fresh opportunity for BJP to open its account. This State has always remained a problem area leaving the party to seek not entirely successful partnerships with AIADMK. The BJP’s s Hindutva ideology failed to find a place in the aggressive, caste and language-specific politics of the Dravidian heartland, especially Tamil Nadu. The ‘Tamil cultural nationalism’ propagated by the DMK made it impossible for the BJP to find a toe-hold in the state by itself. Rally in Trichy just a sign of impending rise of BJP?

However, eventually the party managed to forge not-very-long lasting associations with DMK and also its arch rival AIADMK in the past for state and national polls. Very recently, the BJP has no stated alliance with any party in Tamil Nadu and the DMK, even after its split from the Congress, is yet to warm up to the idea of an alliance with BJP. Jayalalithaa and the AIADMK has been cosying up to the BJP and the party chief isn’t as averse to Modi as many other leaders, but she hasn’t committed to anything yet.

For a Hindi-speaking BJP, the south has always been a big challenge. Atal Bihari Vajpayee came closest to cracking the problem because he held some appeal for educated middle class non-Hindi speakers. Interestingly, Modi too has a fair amount of connect already with the same section of voters that Vajpayee had clout over – the educated middle class who were willing to, and could afford, to look beyond the deep seated language and cultural biases of the southern states.

The same state parties will help Modi overcome the language hiccup and take his development-for-all poll plank reach the crucial masses who hold the reins of any party’s political fortunes.  But BJP’s efforts to cobble –up poll alliance with DMDK, MDMK and PMK could give it a place to expand its influence on. According to some poll observers, there are chances that this front may win from 4 to 7 seats in Tamil Nadu.

The BJP is also hoping to open its account in kerala this time. Recently a TV-C Voter Survey predicted one seat for the BJP in Kerala, thereby boosting the party’s hopes.

“The party is hopeful of opening its account in Kerala this time. A couple of constituencies, including Pathanamthitta, where Alphons Kannanthanam could be the party candidate, and Thiruvananthapuram, where the party plans to field veteran O Rajagopal, are priority seats. While ongoing issues related to the Aranmula airport project could prove favourable in Pathanamthitta, there are political factors in favour of the BJP in Thiruvananthapuram´says a BJP functionary

BJP state president V Muraleedharan too is confident that the Modi wave could open a new chapter for the party in Kerala.

“The massive response that Modi got in Kochi and Thiruvananthapuram should be enough indication for the BJP’s possibilities in Kerala this Lok Sabha polls. Party candidates will be finalised within a month,” he said. Muraleedharan might opt for Kozhikode constituency if the party wants him to contest.

The massive turnout of supporters for the two functions that Modi attended is what the party leaders consider as the most positive sign.

In BJP’s perception, getting even 30 to 40 seats in the total of 130 seats from southern part of India is going to be a big bonus and opening accounts in both Tamil Nadu and Kerala would be a big achievement in terms of establishing BJP as a political party with pan India presence.

But the Congress poll managers still believe that despite the crowds and media attention, BJP’s prospects may be restricted to a clutch of States where the saffron party hopes to do well and the rest could just be a hype and hoopla.

In their opinion, Uttar Pradesh is still an untested ground for BJP in real terms while its leap in faith in both North-east, much of east and the southern parts of India may not give the much talked about 200 plus seats.

However, the problem with the Congress party has been that it has not yet been able to devise a way to effectively counter the threat posed by Modi and his relentless attack in every political rally. Ignoring Modi or remaining in reactive mode may give Modi a chance to grab voter’s mind space as he goes on hammering the Congress on corruption, price rise and poor governance.

Attacking Modi over his alleged complicity in 2002 riots have proved counterproductive in the past and the lack of court strictures has only emboldened him manifold. It is here that the Congress party leaders seem to be at their wit’s end.

(Posted on March 13, 2014 @ 11pm)

(Ajay N Jha is a veteran journalist from both Print and Electronic media.  He is Advisor to Prasar Bharti. The views expressed are his personal. His email id is Ajay N Jha <ajayjha30@gmail.com> )

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