The election fever in Karnataka is hotting up with every passing day. Congress Vice President Rahul Gandhi began his campaign from Sindhanur, Bijapur and Bagalkot yesterday and the Congress party also released its election manifesto promising a lot of things to the people of Karnataka if it was voted back to power.
However, the people of Karnataka are anxiously waiting to see the next Chapter of “pappu vs feku’ saga in Karnataka and wondering what would Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi would dispense with. As of now, Modi is stated to be coming to Karnataka to address a few rallies and boost the moral of the fledging BJP lot in Karnataka which seems to be clearly on the back foot.
Narendra Modi who is being hailed as the next Prime Minister candidate of the BJP and as a pioneer of all round development in Gujarat to establish it is the best developed State in the country both by the Corporate sector as well as a huge section of media would have a huge task cut out for him to resurrect the BJP in Karnataka with his electrifying speeches and “fresh jibes and barbs’ against the Congress leaders.
Modi has been extremely careful in choosing his targets in the Congress camp apart from having an excellent media management team at his command during the last few months. It was also said that Modi had already sent his team of experts and media managers to scout a few venues of his speeches across Karnataka as well as collect talking points, speak to a cross section of people and get their feedback on issues of concern by the people of Karnataka so that he is in a position to touch the right chord with the electorate.
It was also hinted by a few Karnataka BJP leaders that Modi would prefer to campaign in the northern parts of karnataka because not only they understand Hindi very well but also there are chunks of Gujaratis in Hubli- Dharwad region whose votes would be important for the party.
However, there are a few issues and questions which would not only be weighing heavily on Modi’s mind but also BJP leaders in karanataka because the ground realities of Gujarat are radically different from Karnataka. In addition,” Moditwa’ has started coming under scathing attack from NDA’s ally JD(U) and Modi’s anguish could be seen in his today’s statement that” untouchability was still continuing in politics”. It was a clear reference to the Bihar Chief Minister who said that Modi was not acceptable to him as the BJP Prime Minister Candidate.
One inference is that Modi would again choose the Prime Minister as well as the Gandhis as his target of attack and try to bring in the incompetence of UPA II in handling so many issues. He may ram the UPA more on the failire of MNREGA and a series of scams that have plagued the central government during the last 4 years and win public sympathy.
Secondly, he may blow his own trumpet about Gujarat as the most “developed and advanced State” and urge upon the people of karnataka to bring BJP back to power again. However, the fact remains that Modi has remained as a monolith in Gujarat since 2002 and most of his tall claims about his” development model”have goene overboard and made him a “feku’ in the eyes of Congress fans. There is a substantial amount of truth in that allegation.
For example, Modi has always tom-tommed over 11.2 percent annual growth rate of Gujarat since he took over and made Gujarat as the best global investment centre in India. His six global investment melas till now, as per Modi’s pronouncements” have unfolded the development story of Gujarat. Gujarat gives a vision for a preferred place to live and to do business through accelerated, balanced, inclusive and sustainable growth driven by robust social, industrial and physical Infrastructure.”He also claimed that 7,936 memorandums of understanding (MoUs) were signed for Rs. 20,83,000 ($ 450 billion) crore at Vibrant Gujarat Summit 2011itself. The naked truth is that not oven 15 percent of the total investment pledged during all these summits till now have materialized.
Even otherwise, the projected target on infrastructure build up in India’s 11th Five year plan is to the tune of $ 500 Billion. But going by Gujarat government’s own claims, it would be aiming at something like $ 360 billion in the same sector through investment by private parties in the State.This seems to be a hyperbole given that the optimum capacity of Gujarat at the moment is around Rs 1.5 lakh crores.
India’s GDP is around $ 1500 billion and Gujarat accounts for 6% of India’s economy as its GDP is not even beyond 2.25 lakh Crores. Again, Gujarat’s claim of being the growth engine of India is equally misleading as all India level GSDP increase at current prices in last six years(2004-10) is 206.00% and Gujarat comes on 10th position in that(21..12%). Uttarakhand remains on number one while Bihar and Maharashtra remain on 4th and 5th position respectively.
Modi has never admitted in public speeches that Gujarat still remains on 8th position in Human development index at the national level. Its remains on 14th position with regard to drop-out rates in classes between the age of 6 to 16 years. There at least another 9 areas in Human resources development index where Gujarat remains lower down the order even in comparison to Uttarakhand and Bihar. Yet, Modi remains the latest and the biggest Messiah of development and “ Moditwa’ is being sung as the anthem of “ Hindutwa”. !!
Now ,even BJP Ministers from Bihar have openly started questioning Modi’s development claim. One such person was Bihar’s Tourism Ministrer Sunil kumar Pintu who said on record that” Even before Modijee assumed the mantle of governance, Gujarat was already a developed state. On the other hand, Nitish kumar took over from scratch but managed to script a turnaround story in Bihar. Compared to Gujarat, Bihar model of development is better and is receiving plaudits from within the country and beyond”.
So, the big question that remains yet unanswered is what Modi would advocate for in karnataka polls that entice the voters to vote BJP back to power. A Dharwad businessman had a very interesting commitment to make in this context.” In FICCI meeting and in Kolkata, Narendra modi kept talking about Jasuben Pitza story. Following that logic, in his Karnataka campaign he should speak about Muniamma brand “Soppinu-saaru,” Kenche Gowda brand “Kurry-curry,” Mutalik( Ram Sene) brand “Patraade “and Koujalgi brand “ kardhantu.” He said that the people of karnataka were much educated and they could read in between lines clearly.
Even otherwise, Modi’s record as the campaign winner in other States has been less than flattering. Gujarat in any case, has been his home turf and he has at times, behaved like a dictator and never allowed any dissidence in the party to prop up. Those who came on the wrong side of Modi were either shown the door or politically finished for ever.
His last election campaign in Himachal Pradesh was a disaster. Not only the BJP lost power in Himachal, Modi himself became an object of national outrage and ridicule for his” Rs 50 crore Girlfriend” and his below the belt jibe at Union Minister Shashi Tharoor’s’s wife Sunanda.
In addition, despite his many atonement efforts for the 2002 Gujarat carnage, Modi is till seen with an eye of suspicion by the Muslim community in India. Karnataka state has more than 12.5 percent Muslim population and the majority of them are in pockets of North Karnataka. Modi may like to put his “ topi’ on their heads even if he did not have the guts to” wear Muslim topi’ from the hands of a Maulana in his own home State.( To be continued) (Posted on April 24, 2013 @ 11.10pm)
(Ajay Jha is a Commentator and Independent Writer and Analyst on Politics, security and Economy of South And West Asia. His email id is: Ajay N Jha <ajayjha30@gmail.com>)
