The amount of hype, hoopla and heartache generated on every move, action, comment and sound byte of both Congress party Vice- President Rahul Gandhi and Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra modi both in the print, electronic and social media during the last 7 months is unprecedented. While reems of newspapers and hours of telecast time in various television news channels have been wasted on every minute details about these two politicians, it is the social media and twitter in particular which began a rather no holds barred war of word and even gave them special titles as “ Pappu’ and “ Fenku” as well.
The BJP fans the first one to do the carpet bombing on twitter and give the “pappu”sobriquet to Rahul Gandhi for his amusing statements on a few issues and the Congress supporter’s maintained calm. However, the Congress party fans hit back with vengeance at Narendra Modi as “Fenku” when he spoke in Delhi elsewhere about his tall claims and particularly on the “Gujarat model of development ‘and went to the extent of describing Lijjat Papad as an example of enterprise by women in Gujarat.
It was here that he was caught on the wrong foot because “Lijjat papad brand originated in Mumbai” and from here the Twitter exchanges ranged from the frivolous to the abusive and the saga continues even today in some measure or the other. And now, the Pappu Vs Fenku fight has traveled to karanataka where State elections are to be held on 5th May.
Political pundits have been mulling over the impact of both Rahul Gandhi and narendra Modi’s campaign in karnataka assembly polls and various kinds of arguments and counter- arguments have been put forward during last few days.
The Congress party had promised to launch a high voltage campaign by Rahul Gandhi from today in the northern parts of Karnataka. Rahul Gandhi has fired the first salvo today through his first leg of election campaign in Raichur, Bijapur and Bagalkot by accuring BJP of looting the State with impunity.He said BJP broke electoral promises and “the only thing they remembered was how to loot public money in the state. They have done it. They are past masters in this”.
Rahul Gandhi predicted the doom for BJP saying”. BJP will lose here. We can hear it in Delhi…. Last time you made BJP victorious, you trusted them. They promised you 24-hour power supply, did you get it? They promised you employment, did you get it? They forgot employment, power.”
Taking a swipe at the BJP for talking about corruption in Delhi, he slammed it for giving “Vidhan Sabha seats to two brothers (mining barons from Bellary Janardhana Reddy and Karunakara Reddy who are facing corruption cases)”. Moreover, chiding the BJP government for its alleged role in illegal export of iron ore, Gandhi said, “Your iron ore is being sold to China and they (BJP government) are earning crores of Rupees.”
Rahul Gandhi said his party will not make big promises but will restore the faith of the people. “We will fight your battle, battle for employment” and lambasted the BJP for closing MNREGA in Karnataka even as the Congress ensured employment through the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act.
His attack was on the expected lines because the BJP in Karnataka has been tottering and it is quite unlikely that it would be in a position to even emerge as the single largest party in the state given that there are at least 5 political parties in the fray and each one would try to grab the neck of other at almost every Assembly segment.
The Congress Vice-President is expected to address two more rounds of rallies on 26th April at Kolar, Tumkur and Haveri and at Mandya, Hassan and Shimoga on the 1st of May. The Congress party leaders as well as workers are quite confident that the Rahul Gandhi effect would spell magic on the fortunes of the party.
However, the part history of Rahul Gandhi’s election speeches and performance of the Congress party in various States has not been very flattering. No one questions his honesty and sincerity to make the Congress party vibrant and connect it with grass root level. There is no doubt that after the Congress President, he has been the biggest crowd-puller and star campaigner of the Congress party since 2007. However, that magic has not helped the party get votes.
Perhaps he has not been able to understand it even today that the real and serious business of politics is not to be fought on computer screens by quick-witted dudes and the “west educated War Room warriors “. Nor will the speeches in the air-conditioned halls of business lobbies really matter in the end.
The battles will take place in the dusty villages of Karnataka while the strategies will be forged behind closed doors by hardened politicos adept at not just number crunching but also managing the impossible.And in the end, it will all boil down to the numbers, for it is the numbers that matter in the formation of government and make the difference between the victory and the defeat..
For example, in 2007 Uttar pradesh Assembly elections Rahul Gandhi campaigned in at least 108 segments and it appeared is if the Congress party would create a major upset for the BSP. But the Congress candidates could only win 2 out of those 108 Assembly segments.
Again, in Bihar Assembly polls of October- November 2011, Rahul and Sonia Gandhi campaigned at 25 Assembly segments and yet the Congress candidates lost their deposits in 20 out of those 25 segments.
Then came UP Assembly polls of 2012 where Rahul Gandhi had himself taken over the command. Yet the party could muster up only 28 out of the total of 403 seats. The Congress party also lost Punjab polls despite “the Rahul Gandhi effect and criterion’ in ticket distribution and in Goa, the Congress party ended up with just 8 out of the total of 40 seats.
Rahul Gandhi’s first test as Congress Vice-President was in Tripura and Nagaland. In Tripura, he promised to banish” the Left’ out of Indian map and yet the Congress party could fold up just with 10 out of the total of 60 seats. The same scenario was repeated in Nagaland as well as the Congress could manage only 10 seats..
The Congress party workers see Rahul Gandhi as their’ elixir’ and as a magician who could turn the table like a magician and wrest the power from the BJP. But that is easier said and done because of many factors.
Karnataka Congress has been a divided- house during last 4 years and the party does not have a tall mass base leader. Secondly, the bungling in ticket distribution had left many committed party workers fuming. Even today, the Congress party within Karnataka remains far from a cohesive battle ready outfit because of continuous internal bickering
Under these circumstances, it would be a Herculean task for Rahul Gandhi to resurrect it and win the Karnataka polls with a decisive margin. The failure to wrest power from the BJP in Karnataka would have a direct impact on his own credibility and image. It remains to be seen what would come out of the ballot boxes on 8th May. ( To be continued)
Posted on April 23, 2013 @ 11 pm
(Ajay Jha is a Commentator and Independent Writer and Analyst on Politics, security and Economy of South And West Asia. His email id is: Ajay N Jha <ajayjha30@gmail.com>)
