Modi’s 2014 Poll Plan Already Punctured ???

ENARADA, New Delhi

By Ajay N Jha

Three days ago, a globally known media Consultant and election strategist made a startling observation about Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi and the media blitzkrieg surrounding him over the last few months.

He said that “Modi may end up being the most unfortunate victim of his own game plan in 2014 because no one knows how his strategies are going to be implemented on the ground level and how much his own party rivals are going to pull it down”.

His second observations was even more shocking. He said, “Modi had devoured 17.23 percent space in Indian print media while electronic media had given him 21.63 percent space to him through news and bytes related to him apart from Special shows.” That is by far the biggest by any politician in recent times. The height of Anna Hazare’s Lokpal agitation was the only occasion when media gave so much of space and coverage and created such a nationwide frenzy for days together.

There is no doubt that Modi has been exceptionally deft and dexterous in his media management and even today he keeps hogging limelight with just one quip or quote. There is a flurry of statements and flood of tweets and comments on social media sites ad nauseum .  A few Congress leaders and spokespersons justify their presence in the party through their superlative vitriol and virulent attack on him.

It is also true that he is perhaps one BJP Chief Minister who has created a reputation as an incorruptible and efficient politician and technocrat who has electrified Gujarat’s 18 thousand villages and ensured 24X7 power supply. He has created that aura of slashing red tapism to attract companies like Ford, Tata Motors and Maruti Suzuki and turned Mamata Banerjee’s Singur loss into his gain.

His biggest claim as the Chief Minister of Gujarat since last 10 years has been a growth rate of more than 11 percent in as many years. Gujarat, according to him, remained fifth out of 15 big States in terms of per capita income and Gujarat was a model and engine of India’s economic growth. He has been thundering about Gujarat’s exceptional growth on every platform and the national media has been lapping it up as a gospel.

In reality, it is not the ability and expertise of media to turn a trivia into titanic than the ‘smartness of the Modi propaganda machine’ that has made even his senior party leaders as pygmies in front of him. It is his powerful oratory and uncanny ability to choose right words to connect with his audience that has made Modi a star overnight.

Modi has been equally successful in creating a higher ‘sales pitch’ for himself by embarrassing and exploiting modern technology by no other Indian leader. He is very active on twitter, facebook and on U tube with more than 1.8 million followers and the number is still growing by every day. Moreover, he created a history by using 3-D projection technology to appear simultaneously at 53 events at one time in his re-election campaign in December last year.

The fact is that Gujarat has a long tradition of entrepreneurship and the State had been doing well even before Modi came on the scene.  Secondly, States like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and karnataka and even Delhi have attracted more foreign investment than Gujarat between 2009 to 2012,  as per India’s central bank data. This is despite the fact that Modi organized at least six Global investment Melas and brought in almost 80 percent of top Indian industrialists on his platform to sing hosannas for him as the “development Messiah”.

The most tangible gain to Modi with all these gimmicks and ‘sponsored media projections’ has been his familiarity throughout the country. He has succeeded in creating a nationwide awareness for himself as a brand. He has also created a huge amount of curiosity among the rural masses even in distant areas where people are at least talking about him. However, it would be a billion dollar question if this familiarity and recognition is going to be good enough to turn into a formidable vote bank.

In fact, a debate has already started in BJP camp if a section of BJP leaders would (more than the Congress party’s bid to turn 2014 Lok Sabha polls as a fight between Secularism  and Communalism) puncture his grand poll plan for  the next Lok Sabha polls. At the moment, everything may appear to be hunky dory between Modi and his detractors because of the ‘active intervention of RSS”. Yet the fact remains that his rivals within the BJP have not yet reconciled to the fact that they have already become irrelevant. One the contrary, they have already started their game to ensure that Modi does not get the magic number to claim the post of Prime Minister in 2014.

Modi’s contemporaries like Dr Rman Singh and MP Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan would not take his diktat lying down and they have started playing their own games to derail his game plan for 2014.

One such indication is  Raghavjee Shah episode.The summary sacking and subsequent arrest of Finance Minister Raghav jee Shah has shocked and surprised many loyal BJP workers in Madhya Pradesh. People are still wondering about the lightning speed with which the Chief Minister acted in this case.

According to  a few BJP insiders in Bhopal, the Chief Minister had immediately contacted Mrs Sushma Swaraj and  even Anant Kumar who advised to promptly sack him. It was more like the opposition party government trying to settle a political score. In this case, it was the Chief Minister himself who did everything suo moto.

Raghav jee was not even allowed to meet the Chief Minister in person and hand over his resignation. He was just asked to fax his resignation. In this case, there was no further investigation, no appointment of any committee to examine the case, no medical test conducted on the boy. The government could have constituted a team or a committee could have been formed to go into the details. Instead, he was arrested and put into jail in full media glare

What Raghav jee Shah did with his domestic help was totally abhorring and unjustified.  But this was not for the first time that he was found guilty of such immoral conduct. In fact, there was another sex CD of him with a call girl which surfaced in 2011. Even in 2005, the SIB had intercepted a telephonic conversation of Raghav jee with a call girl. He needed to be punished any way.

The biggest question is if Raghav jee has been indulging in such immoral act for so long then why the Chief Minister was sitting over it.? Or it was a part of a well-planned conspiracy to use Raghavjee as a pawn and indirectly target Modi in his bid to become PM in 2014 ? No wonder then a secretary of MPCC said “Well, one Gujarati bhai has done this, what would the next Gujarat bhai do now?”

Interestingly, Raghavjee Shah is originally from Gujarat.  There is a sizeable Gujarati community in Sagar, Vidisha and Indore areas of MP.  This incident would also be used by a section of BJP leaders as a slur on the Gujarati community. So, before the election, he has been hanged even without getting a chance to explain himself.

The most interesting part is that all these sex and sleaze CDS had been prepared by a BJP insider named Shiv Shankar Pateria from Vidisha from where Ms Sushama Swaraj is the MP. As per Pateria, he had given all those CDs to the Chief Minister and discussed about those with him as well. If what he claimed it true, then why didn’t the Chief Minister show the same kind of urgency? Why now?

Yet the bigger question is, how did that CD reached in the hands of a Congress functionary, Mukesh Naik who leaked it to the media. The CD clearly reveals that unnatural sex was happening with the consent of the victim. Would the 79 year old Finance Minister be treated like this and sent to jail as per provisions of IPC 377.

Was the Chief Minister trying to prove himself as the Caesar and hang the man under whose patronage he had himself grown from a small time party worker to the post of Chief Minister? In this age of media hype and paid news syndrome, are these BJP leaders aware of the impact of this incident where State assembly elections are barely 90 days away?

This CD expose is bound to have a catastrophic impact on the overall image of BJP which always talks of morality and character. It is bound to spell doom on the morale of the party workers which may even spill over to other States like Chhattisgarh, Delhi and Rajasthan.

Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan together account for 65 Parliament seat where BJP had won 37 seats in 2009 Lok Sabha polls. BJP is targeting at least o 45 to 50 seats from these states this time around. It is anyone’s guess where would the BJP get such number in the light of this scandal.

“Now the BJP leaders are scared that these expose could explode the myth of morality and celibacy of such party stalwarts and would have catastrophic impact on the future of the party in those states where elections are being held in October- November” said a senior Congress leader in Bhopal.

Mr Narendra Modi has been constantly attacking the UPA government over its failures and becoming more popular among the masses with every passing day. Can this be interpreted as a well-planned move by his detractors to derail his mission? This incident would definitely have terrible impact on the BJP poll prospects not only in Madhya Pradesh but also in Chhattisgarh, Delhi and Rajasthan. It would put a big question mark on where Modi would get the magic number to become the BJP’s Prime Minister?

Many BJP Ministers and party functionaries in Madhya Pradesh are scared about their exposure in media. According to insiders, there are sex CDs of at least six Ministers and two BJP top functionaries in Madhya Pradesh government which could explode any time.

The latest in this context is the issue of notice by Madhya Pradesh to Jabalpur SP asking him to send the inquiry report in connection with a case related to MP BJP General Secretary Arvind Menon. The Commission has asked the SP to locate the missing complainant Sushila Mishra who had alleged that She has been sexually exploited by Menon. The woman, in her affidavit, had also alleged that the police were not registering the complaint. The Commission has asked the SP to send the report by 25 July.

There are reports that a noted builder and road contractor Dilip Suryavanshi. Suryavanshi has got over 25 sex CDs of these BJP politicians recorded during the last 9 years and that is the reason how he bagged over 70 percent of state road contacts in the State.

Dilip Suryavanshi is notorious for blackmail  and coercion and many BJP leaders feel that the Congress party may lay hands on these CDs and explode them like a bomb in a series of ‘expose’ and that would play havoc with the prospects of BJP not only in Madhya Pradesh but other places also.

In any case, Mr Chauhan has remained the Chief Minister for the last 8 years and there are many allegations about amassing disproportionate wealth against his kith and kin. A few more exposures in the coming days would make the position of Shivraj Singh Chauhan untenable. He also knows that the BJP central leadership may not field him as the Chief Minister for the third time. He would not mind if the BJP government goes out of power.  However, the party would lose and whole anti- Modi gang would have the last laugh. But at least, they would have stopped Modi in his track through this to a great extent and puncture his grand poll plan for 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

(Posted on July 14, 2013 @ 6.30pm)

(Ajay N Jha is a veteran journalist from both Print and Electronic media.  He is the  President and CEO of WICS Global Communications.  His email id is Ajay N Jha <ajayjha30@gmail.com> )

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